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Tournament: Conrad | Round: 4 | Opponent: Grapevine | Judge: -

1NC - Elections

====Clinton’s ahead with an 86 chance of winning right now—our poll data is based on the voting history of nearly 300 polls since April ====
Katz 8-18 , Josh. "Who Will Be President?" The New York Times. The New York Times, 18 Aug. 2016. Web. 18 Aug. 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html.
Hillary Clinton has an 86 chance of winning the presidency. The Upshot’s elections
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uncertain — this one uses the 10 with the closest expected vote margin.)

Obama’s popularity matters more than any other factor—-avoiding surprises is key

Joshua Bernstein 9-9 (analyst at Bernstein) "Obama's Approval Rating Is So ... Stable," http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-09/obama-s-approval-rating-is-so-stable)
How voters feel about Barack Obama is probably more important to the outcome of the
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down, but the U.S. isn't exactly at peace either.  

Obama supports expansion of nuclear power—sudden shift in energy policy drains his popularity

The White House 15 "FACT SHEET: Obama Administration Announces Actions to Ensure That Nuclear Energy Remains a Vibrant Component of the United States' Clean Energy Strategy." The White House. The White House, 06 Nov. 2015. Web. 18 Aug. 2016. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/06/fact-sheet-obama-administration-announces-actions-ensure-nuclear-energy.
As detailed in the Climate Action Plan, President Obama is committed to using every
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nation’s energy system: energy security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility.

GOP victory rolls back the Iran deal

Toosi 15 – foreign affairs correspondent at POLITICO
(Nahal, "How a Republican president could kill the Iran deal," http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/gop-president-iran-deal-kill-120077)
If the next president hates the nuclear deal with Iran, he (or she
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a backlash from Tehran that boosts the U.S. president’s standing.

That causes nuclear war

Stevens 13 – associate editor and chief political commentator for the Financial Times (Phillip, "The four big truths that are shaping the Iran talks," 11/14/13, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af170df6-4d1c-11e3-bf32-00144feabdc0.html)
The who-said-what game about last weekend’s talks in Geneva has become
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previous Iranian leaders, but he does seem ready to weigh the options.

DA-Navy subs

All US attack subs are nuclear powered—the plan gets rid of all of them

Schmitt, Eric(Eric Schmitt is a senior writer who covers terrorism and national security issues for The New York Times. Since 2007, he has reported on terrorism issues, including assignments to Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Africa and Southeast Asia. He is the co-author, with The Times’s Thom Shanker, of "Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Campaign Against Al Qaeda," published in 2011.
He was first appointed as a Pentagon correspondent for The Times in May 1990. Mr. Schmitt served this position until February 1996, and then again from Sept. 11, 2001 until 2006, covering issues of national security. Between 1996 and 2001, he worked as a domestic correspondent covering, among other subjects, the Congress and immigration.). "Russia Bolsters Its Submarine Fleet, and Tensions With U.S. Rise." The New York Times. The New York Times, 20 Apr. 2016. Web. 10 Aug. 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/world/europe/russia-bolsters-submarine-fleet-and-tensions-with-us-rise.html?'r=0.
The United States has 53 attack submarines, all nuclear-powered, as well
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to deploy far from American shores, remain superior to their Russian counterparts.

And attack submarines are uniquely key to naval power

Cropsey, Seth (Director, Center for American Seapower, Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey began his career in government at the Defense Department as Assistant to the Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and subsequently served as Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy in the Reagan and Bush administrations, where he was responsible for the Navy's position on efforts to reorganize DoD, development of the maritime strategy, the Navy's academic institutions, naval special operations, and burden-sharing with NATO allies. In the Bush administration, Cropsey moved to OSD to become acting assistant secretary, and then principal deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. Cropsey served as a naval officer from 1985-2004.). "China, Russia Are Challenging Our Navy: Is Our Submarine Program Prepared?" Hudson Institute. PJ Media, 11 Sept. 2015. Web. 10 Aug. 2016. http://www.hudson.org/research/11630-china-russia-are-challenging-our-navy-is-our-submarine-program-prepared.
Admiral Hyman G. Rickover supervised the growth of the "nuclear navy," which
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submarines require to continue their role as a critical element of American seapower.

Naval power is key to U.S. power projection

NOAA 98 (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Military Sealift Command, the U.S. Maritime Administration, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) 1998 The Oceans and National Security, http://www.yoto98.noaa.gov/yoto/meeting/nat'sec'316.html
Maritime forces have inherent strengths which make them America’s best tool to effectively meet most
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very important way, the oceans can buffer North America from conflict overseas.

Collapse of U.S. leadership sparks global nuclear war

Zalmay Khalilzad 95 (RAND analyst) Spring 1995 "Losing the Moment," WASHINGTON QUARTERLY
Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and
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to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

1NC- CP Thorium Reactors

Text: The aff actor ought to replace all uranium based reactors with thorium based reactors

Solvency

====CP solves the aff—Thorium based reactors have much better accident safeguards, produce significantly less nuclear waste, are extremely difficult to proliferate, and thorium is mined much more environmentally friendly than uranium====
Warmflash, David. "Thorium Power Is the Safer Future of Nuclear Energy."Discover. Discover Magazine, 16 Jan. 2015. Web. 15 Aug. 2016. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2015/01/16/thorium-future-nuclear-energy/~~#.V7JsF5grKUk.
Nuclear power has long been a contentious topic. It generates huge amounts of electricity
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term – and to dramatically improve the world’s energy sustainability in the process.

And, the CP is mutually exclusive—you can’t prohibit nuclear power production and create more means to do so—perm is severance

And, 2 net benefits to the CP—it doesn’t link to the Navy subs or elections DA