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+==1AC== |
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+===Part 1: Framework: === |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====I affirm and value morality ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Reductionism means that there is no personal identity which concludes util ==== |
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+**Schultz 86** ~~Bart Schultz, Senior Lecturer in Humanities (Philosophy) and Director of the Humanities Division's Civic Knowledge Project at the University of Chicago, "Persons, Selves, and Utilitarianism," Ethics, Vol. 96, No. 4 (Jul., 1986), pp. 721-745~~ JW |
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+The theory of personal identity that might be used to support util- itarianism is |
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+AND |
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+that there is less to it than we had been inclined to think. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====This leads to util==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====a. If people are just a series of certain disconnected physical and mental states, the only relevant impact is maximizing experiences within those states of affairs ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====b. Other theories presume identity is relevant. If identity is irrelevant, then util must be true==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Additional reasons as to why reductionism is true: ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+==== A. Psychological evidence proves that we don't identify with our future selves – continuous personal identity doesn't exist ==== |
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+**Opar 14** ~~Alisa Opar, articles editor at Audubon magazine, "Why We Procrastinate," Nautilus, January 16, 2014, http://nautil.us/issue/9/time/why-we-procrastinate~~ |
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+The British philosopher Derek Parfit espoused a severely reductionist view of personal identity in his |
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+AND |
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+to practice being good to others. One of them might be you. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====B. Split brain experiments prove we don't have unified consciousness or identity ==== |
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+**Parfit 84 bracketed for gendered language **~~Derek Parfit, British philosopher, "Reasons and Persons, 1984~~ |
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+Some recent medical cases provide striking evidence in favour of the Reductionist View. Human |
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+AND |
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+, and can receive two different answers written by this person's two hands. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Thus the standard is maximizing expected well-being. Additional reasons to prefer==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====1. The state is inevitable- policymaking is the only way to create change.==== |
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+**Coverstone 5** Alan Coverstone (masters in communication from Wake Forest, longtime debate coach) "Acting on Activism: Realizing the Vision of Debate with Pro-social Impact" Paper presented at the National Communication Association Annual Conference November 17^^th^^ 2005 |
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+ An important concern emerges when Mitchell describes reflexive fiat as a contest strategy capable |
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+AND |
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+that is a fundamental cause of voter and participatory abstention in America today. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====2. Ethical uncertainty means we prioritize existential risks. ==== |
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+**Bostrom 13** ~~Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy @ University of Oxford, "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority," Global Policy Vol. 4 Issue 1, February 2013~~ JW |
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+These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential |
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+AND |
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+of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+===Part 2: Advantages === |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Plan Text: The national governments of Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will ban the production of nuclear power. ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Russia's Middle East deals indicate that nuclear power is here to stay, reversing the Fukushima trend against them ==== |
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+**Armstrong 15** ~~Ian Armstrong, Supervisor and Researcher at Wikistrat, the world's first crowdsourced geopolitical consultancy, "Russia is creating a global nuclear power empire," Global risk Insights, October 29, 2015, http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/10/russia-is-creating-a-global-nuclear-power-empire/~~ JW |
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+For one, the ability of Russia to not only maintain pre-Fukushima nuclear |
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+AND |
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+for nuclear plant maintenance, but also the prestige that an NPP entails. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Advantage 1: Relations ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Inherency: past conflicts in the Middle East haven't escalated. Each successive conflict will worsen the situation ==== |
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+**Cordesman 01/4** ~~Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy @ Center for Strategic and International Studies, "The ~~New-Old~~ Crises and Instability in the Middle East and North Africa in 2016," Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 4, 2016~~ JW |
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+Much of the news reporting and analysis of the Middle East seems to lurch from |
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+AND |
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+day, that will dominate the region in 2016 and in the future. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====And Sunni-Shiite splits will worsen as superpowers back different sects. High tension now between the various sects ==== |
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+**Nasr 1/22** ~~Vali Nasr, "The War for Islam," ForeignPolicy, January 22, 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/22/the-war-for-islam-sunni-shiite-iraq-syria/~~ JW |
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+Both sides in this conflict are now stuck in a zero-sum sectarian battle |
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+AND |
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+or at least, improve its position before settling for a new equilibrium. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Russian nuclear deals create heavy long-term influence that displaces the U.S. Do not underestimate the impact they will have on international relations. ==== |
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+**Armstrong 15** ~~Ian Armstrong, Supervisor and Researcher at Wikistrat, the world's first crowdsourced geopolitical consultancy, "Russia is creating a global nuclear power empire," Global risk Insights, October 29, 2015, http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/10/russia-is-creating-a-global-nuclear-power-empire/~~ JW |
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+Though these economic implications are worth considering, they are far overshadowed by the geopolitical |
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+AND |
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+competition from other capable nuclear powers may emerge in the medium-term. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Russia directly competing with China on nuclear energy exports in the Middle East and deepening sectarian divide in the Middle East==== |
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+**Tanchum 15** ~~Micha'el Tanchum, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Global Energy Center and the Eurasian Energy Futures Initiative at the Atlantic Council , "Russia Races to Outflank China in Middle East Nuclear Technology Market," The Diplomat, July 31, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/russia-races-to-outflank-china-in-middle-east-nuclear-technology-market/~~ JW |
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+As China enters the market for nuclear power plant construction in post-sanctions Iran |
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+AND |
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+principal reasons Russia is hurrying to secure new markets across the Middle East. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====U.S. influence in the Middle East is key to stability between countries and religious sects ==== |
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+**Pollack et al 14** ~~Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Ray Takeyh, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, "Near Eastern Promises Why Washington Should Focus on the Middle East," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2014, http://www.cfr.org/middle-east-and-north-africa/near-eastern-promises/p32891~~ JW |
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+U.S. disengagement has not produced a more stable or secure Middle East |
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+AND |
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+to the militarized overinvolvement that characterized the administration of George W. Bush. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Nuclear war extremely likely in the Middle East. Growing instability means escalation ==== |
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+**Russell 9** ~~James A. Russell, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East," IFRI Security Studies Center, Spring 2009~~ |
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+Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) |
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+AND |
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+the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Advantage 2: Prolif ==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Nuclear power deals with Russia guarantees proliferation, multiple internal warrants ==== |
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+**Guzansky et al 15** ~~Yoel Guzansky, research fellow at Institute for National Security Studies, Zvi Magen, Oded Eran, "Russian Nuclear Diplomacy in the Middle East," INSS Insight No. 782, December 29, 2015, http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538andarticleid=11195~~ JW |
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+Russia is therefore increasing its cooperation in this area not only with Egypt, but |
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+AND |
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+that they accept conditions and restrictions, will accept such demands from Russia. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====Middle East prolif causes nuclear war.==== |
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+ |
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+ |
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+**====Edelman 11====** |
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+Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran |
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+There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support |
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+AND |
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+could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+ |
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+===Part 3: Underview === |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====1. Abstract critique is useless unless it offers a concrete policy alternative that can solve for the harms==== |
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+**Bryant 12** ~~Levi Bryant, prof of philosophy at Collins college, "Critique of the Academic Left," http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/11/11/underpants-gnomes-a-critique-of-the-academic-left/~~ |
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+The problem as I see it is that this is the worst sort of abstraction |
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+AND |
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+. Instead we prefer to shout and denounce. Good luck with that. |
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+ |
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+ |
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+====2. Use epistemic modesty to evaluate the debate. That's probability of the moral framework being true multiplied by the value of an action under that framework ==== |
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+**Overing 15** ~~Bob Overing, coach for Loyola in Los Angeles and debater for the USC Trojan Debate Squad, "Recovering the Role of the Ballot: Evaluative Modesty in Academic Debate," Paper presented at the 2015 Alta Argumentation Conference, July 31, 2015~~ |
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+What I have been calling "modesty" with regard to ROBs is an application |
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+AND |
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+, 2012). Modesty maintains the advantages of both by forcing teams to engage |