Summary

• Objects (1 modified, 1 added, 0 removed)
  • Caselist.RoundClass[39]
  • Caselist.CitesClass[11]

Details

Caselist.RoundClass[39]

EntryDate

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1		-2017-04-12 19:36:12.203
	1	+2017-04-12 19:36:12.0

Caselist.CitesClass[11]

Cites

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	1	+====Warming not real- recent temperatures show no increase====
	2	+**Happer ‘12 **
	3	+(William is a professor of physics at Princeton. "Global Warming Models Are Wrong Again", Wall Street Journal, 3/27/12, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577291352882984274.html)
	4	+What is happening to global temperatures in reality? The answer is: almost nothing for more than 10 years. Monthly values of the global temperature anomaly of the lower atmosphere, compiled at the University of Alabama from NASA satellite data, can be found at the website http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/. The latest (February 2012) monthly global temperature anomaly for the lower atmosphere was minus 0.12 degrees Celsius, slightly less than the average since the satellite record of temperatures began in 1979
	5	+
	6	+====No impact for a century — IPCC agrees. ====
	7	+**Ridley 15** — Matt Ridley, Fellow of the Royal Society of Literature and of the Academy of Medical Sciences, Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Conservative Member of the House of Lords (UK), Author of several popular science books including The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves and The Evolution of Everything: How Ideas Emerge, former Science Editor at The Economist, former Visiting Professor at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, holds a D.Phil. in Zoology from Magdalen College, Oxford, 2015 ("Climate Change Will Not Be Dangerous for a Long Time," Scientific American, November 27^^th^^, Available Online at http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-will-not-be-dangerous-for-a-long-time/, Accessed 07-17-2016)
	8	+The climate change debate has been polarized into a simple dichotomy. Either global warming is "real, man-made and dangerous," as Pres. Barack Obama thinks, or it’s a "hoax," as Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe thinks. But there is a third possibility: that it is real, man-made and not dangerous, at least not for a long time. This "lukewarm" option has been boosted by recent climate research, and if it is right, current policies may do more harm than good. For example, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and other bodies agree that the rush to grow biofuels, justified as a decarbonization measure, has raised food prices and contributed to rainforest destruction. Since 2013 aid agencies such as the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank have restricted funding for building fossil-fuel plants in Asia and Africa; that has slowed progress in bringing electricity to the one billion people who live without it and the four million who die each year from the effects of cooking over wood fires. In 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was predicting that if emissions rose in a "business as usual" way, which they have done, then global average temperature would rise at the rate of about 0.3 degree Celsius per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5 degree C per decade). In the 25 years since, temperature has risen at about 0.1 to 0.2 degree C per decade, depending on whether surface or satellite data is used. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, lowered its near-term forecast for the global mean surface temperature over the period 2016 to 2035 to just 0.3 to 0.7 degree C above the 1986–2005 level. That is a warming of 0.1 to 0.2 degree C per decade, in all scenarios, including the high-emissions ones. At the same time, new studies of climate sensitivity—the amount of warming expected for a doubling of carbon dioxide levels from 0.03 to 0.06 percent in the atmosphere—have suggested that most models are too sensitive. The average sensitivity of the 108 model runs considered by the IPCC is 3.2 degrees C. As Pat Michaels, a climatologist and self-described global warming skeptic at the Cato Institute testified to Congress in July, certain studies of sensitivity published since 2011 find an average sensitivity of 2 degrees C. Such lower sensitivity does not contradict greenhouse-effect physics. The theory of dangerous climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide warming but on positive and negative feedback effects from water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne aerosols from coal burning. Doubling carbon dioxide levels, alone, should produce just over 1 degree C of warming. These feedback effects have been poorly estimated, and almost certainly overestimated, in the models. The last IPCC report also included a table debunking many worries about "tipping points" to abrupt climate change. For example, it says a sudden methane release from the ocean, or a slowdown of the Gulf Stream, are "very unlikely" and that a collapse of the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets during this century is "exceptionally unlikely." If sensitivity is low and climate change continues at the same rate as it has over the past 50 years, then dangerous warming—usually defined as starting at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels—is about a century away. So we do not need to rush into subsidizing inefficient and land-hungry technologies, such as wind and solar or risk depriving poor people access to the beneficial effects of cheap electricity via fossil fuels.
	9	+
	10	+====Climate change is not catastrophic — their impacts exaggerate. ====
	11	+**Tol 14** — Richard Tol, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, Professor of the Economics of Climate Change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Member of the Academia Europaea—a European non-governmental scientific association, served as Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, holds a Ph.D. in Economics and an M.Sc. in Econometrics and Operations Research from the VU University Amsterdam, 2014 ("Bogus prophecies of doom will not fix the climate," Financial Times, March 31^^st^^, Available Online at https://next.ft.com/content/e8d011fa-b8b5-11e3-835e-00144feabdc0, Accessed 07-15-2016)
	12	+Humans are a tough and adaptable species. People live on the equator and in the Arctic, in the desert and in the rainforest. We survived the ice ages with primitive technologies. The idea that climate change poses an existential threat to humankind is laughable. Climate change will have consequences, of course. Since different plants and animals thrive in different climates, it will affect natural ecosystems and agriculture. Warmer and wetter weather will advance the spread of tropical diseases. Seas will rise, putting pressure on all that lives on the coast. These impacts sound alarming but they need to be put in perspective before we draw conclusions about policy. According to Monday’s report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a further warming of 2C could cause losses equivalent to 0.2-2 per cent of world gross domestic product. On current trends, that level of warming would happen some time in the second half of the 21st century. In other words, half a century of climate change is about as bad as losing one year of economic growth. Since the start of the crisis in the eurozone, the income of the average Greek has fallen more than 20 per cent. Climate change is not, then, the biggest problem facing humankind. It is not even its biggest environmental problem. The World Health Organisation estimates that about 7m ~~million~~ people are now dying each year as a result of air pollution. Even on the most pessimistic estimates, climate change is not expected to cause loss of life on that scale for another 100 years.

EntryDate

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	1	+2017-04-12 19:36:13.965

Judge

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	1	+Nick Smith

Opponent

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	1	+Kinkaid JG

ParentRound

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	1	+39

Round

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	1	+5

Team

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	1	+Warren Okunlola Aff

Title

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	1	+3 - Hauntology Affirmative - 1AR - Impact Defense - Warming - Greenhill Round 5

Tournament

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	1	+Greenhill