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  • Caselist.CitesClass[18]
  • Caselist.CitesClass[19]

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Caselist.CitesClass[18]

EntryDate

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1		-2016-10-15 17:24:25.104
	1	+2016-10-15 17:24:25.0

Caselist.CitesClass[19]

Cites

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	1	+Russia supports Egypt, Turkey, Jordan nuclear programs WNA’16
	2	+Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries(Updated 13 September 2016)
	3	+http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx
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	5	+One major issue for many countries is the size of their grid system. Many nuclear power plants are larger than the fossil fuel plants they supplement or replace, and it does not make sense to have any generating unit more than about one tenth the capacity of the grid (maybe 15 if there is high reserve capacity). This is so that the plant can be taken offline for refueling or maintenance, or due to unforeseen events. The grid capacity and quality may also be considered regionally, as with Jordan for instance. In many situations, as much investment in the grid may be needed as in the power plant(s). Kenya sought to evaluate its grid system before considering the generation options. Another issue is that of licensing reactor designs. Emerging countries generally do not have the expertise for nuclear power this, and must initially rely on design licensing by countries such as the UK, USA, France, Russia and China while they focus on building competence to license the actual operation of plants. State-owned nuclear companies in Russia and China have taken the lead in offering nuclear power plants to emerging countries, usually with finance and fuel services. The following table charts the main influence in countries with various agreements but not yet any plants under construction. See also the relevant tables in the Nuclear Power in China and Nuclear Power in Russia information papers:
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	7	+RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS VULNERABLE BUT STABILIZING. Reuters 9/4
	8	+Reuters (International News Agency), Putin says Russian economy stabilized, pledges budget deficit cuts, 9/4/2016
	9	+Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech at the G20 summit in China, struck an upbeat tone on the Russian economy, saying it had stabilized, and pledged to cut the country's budget deficit as well as its dependency on oil and gas exports. "Our economy has stabilized .... We plan to reduce the budget deficit further, and to continue to work on cutting the budget's revenues dependency on the exports of hydrocarbons," Putin said. Russia's economy contracted by 3.7 percent in 2015 due to weaker oil prices, the country's chief commodity export, and international sanctions imposed over Moscow's role in the Ukrainian crisis. According to a forecast by analysts at the central bank, Russia's economy will show low quarter-on-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Putin also said the government would continue to work on improving the business climate in Russia.
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	11	+NUCLEAR NRG MARKET IS KEY TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
	12	+Bronson, Rachel (executive director and publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.). "Power shift in the Middle East." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 72.1 (2016): 10-15.
	13	+Russia’s push into the Middle East seems part of a broader effort to dominate the global nuclear power sector, especially in emerging markets. As Cape Town expert Emma Lecavalier described in a recent Bulletin piece, “in 2014, Moscow quietly became the leader of the $500 billion global nuclear energy market, building 37 percent of all new reactors in the world, eclipsing the United States’ meager 7 percent share.” Russia has recently signed deals across Europe, Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.12 The nuclear agreements give a needed boost to a Russian economy reeling under economic sanctions and plunging oil and gas prices. They also increase Russia’s economic presence in the Middle East and provide Moscow with huge and often underappreciated political influence. The ability to withhold fuel, withdraw technical expertise, or shut down plant operations gives Russia leverage in future Middle Eastern energy markets and security considerations.
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	15	+Russian economic collapse creates multiple scenarios for nuclear war
	16	+Filger 9 – American-Canadian writer who is the founder of www.GlobalEconomicCrisis.com, one of the most visible websites on the Internet focused on the global economic crisis
	17	+(Sheldon, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction,” Huffington Post, May 10, 2009,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html)//AC
	18	+In 1987 I visited the Soviet Union with Republican Congressman Tom DeLay (who has since moved on to bigger-but not necessarily better-things), and observed firsthand how a society with bright, well-educated people can still undergo a profound economic collapse when the elites running the nation are infused with corruption, fossilized dogmas and misplaced priorities. Four years after my visit, the USSR of old imploded under the weight of its own colossal economic mismanagement and contradictions. Will history repeat itself? The Russia of today is far from immune to the ramifications of the Global Economic Crisis. Though I would not argue that the Russia being ruled by the duality of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is on the same trajectory as Gorbachev's Soviet Union, there has already emerged a sustained trend of harsh macroeconomic data that attests to an severe economic crisis gripping the Russian nation. The country's stock market has sustained losses from its peak in the range of 70, while the prices for Russia's commodity exports, the major source of foreign exchange earnings, have plummeted at a staggering rate, especially with regards to oil and natural gas. Perhaps more alarming, the latest projection by the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development reveals a dire forecast of negative 7.5 growth in Russia's GDP for 2009. Though some believe that the EBRD projection may be too pessimistic, only four months ago this same institution was predicting that the Russian economy would contract by a mere negative 1. Recent indicators point to a national economy going south at an accelerating pace, reflected in official Russian government statistics which reveal that the national economy contracted by a staggering negative 9.5. in Q1 of 2009. At the very least, Moscow faces a crippling recession. The Medvedev/Putin regime has initiated a host of policy responses to mitigate the impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the nation's fragile economy. Time will determine their long-term effectiveness; however, in the short-term some measures have proven more efficacious than others. A major goal of Moscow's economic technocrats has been to stabilize the country's banking system, and for the time being a degree of success has been achieved through government provision of liquidity to financial institutions. However, this complex geopolitical space that is Russia is now facing a vast array of complex challenges that other members of the G8 are spared, despite the destructive impact of the global synchronized recession facing all major industrialized countries. In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question, the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates put out by the U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time, leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
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	20	+Russian economy crucial for global economy
	21	+Suisse’14 Switzerland trading sector
	22	+https://suissegold.com/Market-Updates/cc-precious-metals-newsletter-march-23-2014.pdf
	23	+With businesses in Russia accounting for around 3 of world GDP, it is clear that the Russian economy matters not only for the region, but also for the global economy. Both the United States and Russia have gone weak on their respective economic sanctions, with the US going after certain Russian officials/banks believed to be responsible (or complicit) for the Crimea annexation and Russia imposing travel sanctions against certain US officials. In 2013, the two countries traded about $38 billion in goods (imports + exports). Not small, but nowhere near the size of trade between EU and Russia at around $461 billion. At most, the US/Russia spat may reduce anticipated US GDP growth from 2.5 to 2.4, while Russia may drop from around 1.5 to 1.2. German, UK, and other European leaders are much less inclined towards challenging Russia given the size of the economic relationship and the importance of Russia’s energy supply to the European economies. Gazprom and other Russian businesses supply around 40 of all energy to Germany, and account for large energy supply in many other European countries. Should European leaders decide to impose strong economic sanctions against Russian businesses, Russian leaders would certainly respond with measures affecting the price of energy. What is the threshold price of oil at which European countries do more harm to themselves than good by challenging Russia? At around $120 to $130 European leaders will become quite weak. Anything above that would more than likely induce a recession in the US/Europe

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-10-15 17:24:26.427

Judge

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	1	+Eric Melin

Opponent

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	1	+Loyola DK

ParentRound

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	1	+14

Round

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	1	+3

Team

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	1	+Strake Jesuit Li Neg

Title

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	1	+SO - Russia Economy DA

Tournament

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	1	+St Marks