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Cites

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1		-Japan’s economy has improved slightly, but it’s still very weak and deflation persists. The Associated Press 5/31
2		-Japan's factory output fell 3.5 percent in April from the same month a year earlier, while consumer spending also edged lower, though both improved from the month before, the government said Tuesday. Earlier, the government reported that the consumer price index fell 0.3 percent in April for the second straight month of deflation. However, excluding both energy and volatile fresh foods, it rose 0.7 percent. The world's third-largest economy has been stuck in the doldrums despite massive monetary easing aimed at vanquishing deflation, which tends to discourage corporate investment and consumer spending. Though the latest data present a mixed picture and are better than some economists' forecasts, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seeking backing from his Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Komeito, for a postponement of a sales tax hike due next year, out of concern the recovery is too weak to endure a fresh hit to consumer spending. In April, consumer spending fell 0.4 percent in April from a year earlier, though incomes rose 0.7 percent. Unemployment was flat at 3.2 percent. Industrial output rose 0.3 percent from the month before, stronger than expected, in one sign the latest dip in growth may be moderating, said Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics. But he noted that private investment remains weak.
3		-Current Japanese trends mean that the plan causes a transition to fossil fuels – renewables fail.
4		-Follett 16 (Andrew, energy and environmental reporter, “The End Of Nuclear Power In Japan Is Bringing Back Coal,” http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/13/the-end-of-nuclear-power-in-japan-is-bringing-back-coal/, Daily Caller)
5		-An analysis published Monday by Bloomberg states that coal power will become the largest source of electricity in Japan due to an effective ban on nuclear power. Nuclear power provided 29 percent of Japan’s total power output before 2011, but will decline to 13.6 percent by 2023 and 1.2 percent by 2040, according to the report. Japan got 24 percent of its electricity from coal in 2010 and the country plans to get more than a third of its power from coal by 2040. Japan previously shut down all of its nuclear reactors in the aftermath of the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake, which triggered the Fukushima disaster. The country has since transitioned away from nuclear power. Prior to the disaster, Japan operated 54 nuclear power plants and the government planned to build enough reactors to provide 50 percent of the country’s electricity power. After the disaster, Japan pledged to effectivly abandon nuclear power by the 2030s, replacing it mostly with wind or solar power, causing the price of electricity to rise by 20 percent. The transition to green energy hasn’t gone well and the country likely won’t meet its goals, according to the report. Japan remains a top importer of oil, coal and natural gas and the government estimated that importing fuel costs the country more than $40 billion annually. Japan’s current government sees a revival of nuclear power as critical to supporting economic growth and slowing an exodus of Japanese manufacturing to lower-cost countries, but has faced incredible pushback. Electricity from new wind power is nearly four times as expensive as electricity from existing nuclear power plants, according to analysis from the Institute for Energy Research. The rising cost of the subsidies needed to make green energy work have been passed to ordinary Japanese rate-payers, triggering complaints that poor households are subsidizing the affluent.
6		-That massively destabilizes the status quo – continued fossil fuel dependence kill Japanese foundations.
7		-Cunningham 15 (Nick, a Vermont-based writer on energy and environmental issues, “A Return To Nuclear May Be Japan’s Only Option,” April 3rd 2015, http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/A-Return-To-Nuclear-May-Be-Japans-Only-Option.html, Oilprice.com)
8		-A return to nuclear may be Japan’s only option. Four years after the Fukushima meltdown, Japan is finally eyeing a return to nuclear power. To be sure, some, if not most of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors will remain offline permanently. But the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is crafting a proposal that could lead to nuclear power reclaiming about 20 percent of Japan’s electricity market. It is hard to imagine such a revival. Nuclear power made up just under 30 percent of the country’s electricity generation before the catastrophic tsunami hit in 2011. Now it is at zero percent. Strict new safety standards and strong public opposition will likely keep many of the reactors on the sidelines. But the ruling party is pressing ahead. In mid-March the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) gave the go-ahead to Kyushu Electric Power for upgrades to its Sendai nuclear power plant, removing a hurdle for the plant’s return to service. Kyushu hopes to power up the reactor by June. More approvals could be forthcoming, particularly if the Liberal Democratic Party gets its way. Assuming that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is able to muscle through his proposal to bring nuclear back, what would that mean for Japan? 1. Imports of LNG, Coal, and Oil down. Japan is massively dependent on imported energy. It is the world’s largest LNG importer, second largest importer of coal, and third largest importer of crude oil. If Japan managed to ramp up nuclear power to 20 percent of its electricity, it would be able to slash its purchases of fossil fuels dramatically. 2. Weaker Economics for Energy Exporters. Japan’s sharp increase of fossil fuel consumption for power generation after Fukushima raised international prices, particularly for LNG. Spot LNG cargoes in Asia – the so-called JKM marker – spiked, selling for more than three times the price of natural gas found in the United States. The JKM marker has since come down both because more LNG supplies have come online and due to the collapse in oil prices. A return to nuclear power will obviate the need for elevated imports of LNG, keeping JKM prices from returning to their highs of 2011-2013. That will cap the market for LNG exporters around the world, pushing many LNG export projects into the red – from Western Canada, to the U.S. Gulf Coast, to Australia. LNG will be a major loser of Japan’s nuclear restart. 3. Trade deficit and electricity rates down. In the three years following Fukushima, Japan spent $270 billion on coal, oil, and LNG imports, a 58 percent increase over what it otherwise would have spent had its nuclear fleet remained online. That forced Japan to run a trade deficit for the first time in 30 years. Japan’s trade balance went from a $65 billion surplus in 2010 to a $112 billion deficit three years later, owing mostly to higher fossil fuel imports. That also translated into higher electricity prices. Japan’s electricity rates increased by 30 percent for industry and 20 percent for residential homes, respectively. Nuclear power can help reverse the ballooning trade deficit and rising electricity costs. 4. Greenhouse Gases. The loss of nuclear power has taken a toll on Japan’s climate posture, as Japan’s greenhouse gases hit a record in 2013. In the absence of nuclear power, Japan is planning on building a lot more coal plants. It has backtracked on its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That could change if nuclear power plays a larger role in the future. More nuclear power generation would mean burning through a whole lot less coal, oil, and natural gas. That would significantly help keep a lid on Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions. 5. Going Against the Public. Still, despite all the positives that would come from bringing its nuclear reactors back online, nuclear power is horrifically unpopular in Japan at this point. A strong majority of the public opposes turning back to nuclear power, with some opinion polls showing as much as 60 percent of the country opposes restarting any reactors.

EntryDate

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1		-2016-09-24 17:09:14.0

Judge

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1		-Bennett Eckert

Opponent

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1		-Loyola ES

ParentRound

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1		-4

Round

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1		-2

Team

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1		-Strake Jesuit Li Neg

Title

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1		-SO - Japan Econ DA

Tournament

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1		-Valley