Summary

• Objects (1 modified, 1 added, 0 removed)
  • Caselist.CitesClass[8]
  • Caselist.CitesClass[9]

Details

Caselist.CitesClass[8]

EntryDate

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1		-2016-10-16 15:21:41.423
	1	+2016-10-16 15:21:41.0

Caselist.CitesClass[9]

Cites

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	1	+Nuclear shut down will have a huge fiscal impact – nuclear energy constitutes a massive portion of Armenian exports and domestic power production
	2	+ENPI 13 (European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument, “ARMENIA: COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER,” 2007-2013, https://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/pdf/country/enpi_csp_armenia_en.pdf)
	3	+Decommissioning of the Medzamor nuclear power plant will have significant fiscal implications. Despite longstanding international requests to close down Medzamor, the power plant continues to cover 40 of Armenia's electricity consumption. The international community remains worried because this type of nuclear power plants cannot be upgraded to current safety levels and because Medzamor is located in a highly seismic zone. The GoA has now decided to build an even bigger new nuclear power plant in the same area when Medzamor is decommissioned. In the EU’s view it remains doubtful whether such action is needed in order to generate sufficient replacement capacity. The country has developed enough alternative energy sources to replace the 400 Megawatt currently stemming from Medzamor. Current Armenian ideas go however towards export of energy. Armenia's external trade remains very low and little diversified (main exports are base metals and precious stones) in spite of Armenia being a WTO member since 2003 and benefiting from the EU’s GSP. Improvements in this regard should be pursued as a matter of priority. The current account deficit decreased slightly to about 4 of GDP in 2005. The current account and debt position is sustainable. The EU is Armenia’s main trade partner, accounting for 46.5 of Armenia's exports and 28.2 of its imports. EU-Armenia trade has been growing over the last five years, but similarly to Armenia's trade with the world in general, it is still very low and nondiversified. Exports to and imports from the EU increased to about € 416 million and €528 million, respectively, in 2005.
	4	+
	5	+Armenia econ weak
	6	+Gadimova 16 Nazrin Gadimova, Armenia on edge of economic collapse," Azer News, 3/1/2016 AZ
	7	+Extremely unstable socio-economic situation in Armenia would be better described as a decay of the country. Various international organizations make unfavorable forecasts regarding the economic situation that Armenia faced. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) analysts expect deterioration of Armenia's balance of payments in 2016. This was noted in the “CIS Macromonitor” report published by analysts of the EDB. “The possible deterioration of the payments balance is linked with the expansion of foreign trade deficit due to reduced exports and increased imports in monthly terms. During this period, there was recorded return to the trend of depreciating dram, which was intensified by strengthening of the dollar on world markets,” EBD analysts believe. Probably, under the influence of the foreign trade and the current account deficit expansion, as well as further cheapening of dram and increased short-term external debt, the payments balance could deteriorate, the report says. Earlier during the discussions over the state budget at the country’s parliament, many opposition parliamentarians have predicted the collapse of the country. MP Mger Shakhgeldian claimed that the economic growth index shown in the draft budget is not sufficient to ensure the development and competitiveness of Armenia in the region. He said the GDP growth of 2.2 percent in general should not be considered as a growth for a country like Armenia, because this growth cannot lead to any positive effects.
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	9	+It's key to their economy – past growth proves and Russia is funding repairs/fortifications to the site now
	10	+NTI 15 Nuclear Threat Initiative, "Fact Sheet: Armenia," July 2015 AZ
	11	+There are two known nuclear research facilities in Armenia: the Yerevan Institute of Physics and the Analitsark Research Facility in Gyumri. 2 Neither houses fissile material. Armenia has one nuclear power plant, Metsamor, (also known as the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant), which contains two VVER-440 reactor units and produces approximately 40 of the country's electricity. 3 Unit 1 went critical in 1976 and Unit 2 in 1980. 4 Both units were shut down after the 1988 earthquake. Unit 1 is permanently out of operation, while Unit 2 was re-commissioned in 1995. 5 The re-opening of Unit 2 played a crucial role during the period of economic recovery following Armenia's independence by providing Armenia with surplus power capacity. 6 While the government had planned to close the unit by 2017, it decided in October 2012 to extend the life of the old reactor for another ten years. 7 In March 2014, the Armenian government approved a plan to extend the plant's operational lifespan further until 2026 with repairs to be made beginning in 2017. 8 These repairs will be funded by the Russian Federation, which has offered Armenia a grant of $30 million and a loan of $270 million to complete the necessary work. 9 The Russian Federation supplies the nuclear fuel necessary for Metsamor's operation under a 2003 agreement between Moscow and Yerevan that ceded management of the plant to Russia's electricity monopoly Unified Energy Systems (UES). 10
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	13	+Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that triggers hotspots around the globe – co-opts all other causes of war
	14	+Harris and Burrows 9 Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Increased Potential for Global Conflict
	15	+Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. 36 Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-10-16 15:21:41.785

Judge

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	1	+Srikar Pyda

Opponent

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	1	+Strake VL

ParentRound

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	1	+6

Round

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	1	+3

Team

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	1	+Palos Verdes Gaur Neg

Title

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	1	+Econ DA

Tournament

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	1	+St Marks