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1 -1AC Environmental Justice
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1 -Link
2 -Nuclear power will be replaced by coal construction and natural gas.
3 -Biello 2013, David. “How Nuclear Power Can Stop Global Warming,” December 12, 2013.http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-nuclear-power-can-stop-global-warming/. SD
4 -As long as countries like China or the U.S. employ big grids to deliver electricity, there will be a need for generation from nuclear, coal or gas, the kinds of electricity generation that can be available at all times. A rush to phase out nuclear power privileges natural gas—as is planned under Germany's innovative effort, dubbed the Energiewende (energy transition), to increase solar, wind and other renewable power while also eliminating the country's 17 reactors. In fact, Germany hopes to develop technology to store excess electricity from renewable resources as gas to be burned later, a scheme known as “power to gas,” according to economist and former German politician Rainer Baake, now director of an energy transition think tank Agora Energiewende. Even worse, a nuclear stall can lead to the construction of more coal-fired power plants, as happened in the U.S. after the end of the nuclear power plant construction era in the 1980s.∂
1 +Framework
2 +Policy analysis within debate should not be identical to policy analysis in the real world. Instead, we should prioritize impacts relevant to anti-colonial struggle when discussing resolutional policy proposals because debate’s educational prerogatives mandate focus on these impacts. This also requires holding both debaters accountable for their performance as representatives of a policy position.
3 +The judge voting for one side or the other does not actually cause the plan to happen, but the ideas that we advocate are real. If you have a chance to impact the real world through the debate round, that should be a prior question.
5 5  
5 +Don’t let them hide behind alarmist consequentialist claims that nuclear energy is necessary to save the world. Nuclear colonialism deploys discourses that justify the sacrifice of native peoples and land in the name of national interest.
6 +Endres 09 - Endres, Danielle. "The rhetoric of nuclear colonialism: Rhetorical exclusion of American Indian arguments in the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste siting decision." Communication and Critical/Cultural Studies 6.1 (2009): 39-60. MC
7 +Resistance to nuclearism comes in many forms, one of which is the body of scholarship called nuclear communication criticism. Within this corpus, Bryan Taylor and William Kinsella advocate the study of ‘‘nuclear legacies’’ of the nuclear production process.39 The material legacies of the nuclear production process include the deaths of Navajo uranium miners, the left-over uranium tailings on Navajo land, and Western Shoshone downwinders. However, nuclear waste is in need of more examination; as Taylor writes, ‘‘nuclear waste represents one of the most complex and highly charged controversies created by the postwar society. Perhaps daunted by its technical, legal and political complexities, communication scholars have not widely engaged this topic.’’40 One of the reasons that nuclear waste is such a complex controversy is its connection with nuclear colonialism. Nuclear communication criticism has focused on examination of the ‘‘practices and processes of communication’’ related to the nuclear production process and the legacies of this process.41 At least two themes in nuclear discourse are relevant to nuclear colonialism: 1) invocation of national interest; and 2) constraints to public debate. First, nuclear discourse is married to the professed national interest, calling for the sacrifices among the communities affected by the legacies of the nuclear production process.42 According to Kuletz, the American West has been constructed as a ‘‘national sacrifice zone’’ because of its connection to the nuclear production process.43 Nuclearism is tautological in its basic assumption that nuclear production serves the national interest and national security and its use of national security and national interest to justify nuclearism. The federal government justifies nuclear production, which disproportionately takes place on American Indian land, as serving the national security. This justification works with the strategy of colonialism that defines American Indian people as part of the nation and not as separate, inherently sovereign entities whose national interest may not include storing nuclear waste on their land.
8 +First, debate matters
9 +a) Tacit assumptions affect students’ development. Acting on assumptions that support those in power supports those power relations. Darder et al.
10 +Darder, Antonia, Baltodano, Marta, and Torres, Rodolfo. “Critical Pedagogy: An Introduction” in The Critical Pedagogy Reader, edited by Darder, Baltodano, and Torres. Second Edition. New York, Taylor and Francis, 2009. MO. Pg 6-7
11 +This phenomenon can be understood within the context of schooling in the following way. Through the daily implementation of specific norms, expectations, and behaviors, that incidentally conserve the interests of those in power, students are ushered into consensus. Gramsci argued that by cultivating such consensus through personal and institutional rewards, students could be socialized to support the interests of the ruling elite, even when such actions were clearly in contradiction with the students’ own class interests. As such, this reproduction of ideological hegemony within schools functioned to sustain the hegemonic processes that reproduced cultural and economic domination within the society. This process of reproduction was then perpetuated through what Gramsci termed “contradictory consciousness.” However, for Gramsci this was not a clean and neat act of one-dimensional reproduction. Instead, domination existed here as a complex combination of thought and practices, in which could also be found the seeds for resistance.
12 +b) Debate allows us to transform our realities, which makes it a key site of resistance to oppression – but only if we prioritize discussion of those impacts in the context of how to decide policy questions. The AC allows us to stand in solidarity with Native Americans who have spoken out about their suffering due to nuclear power.
13 +Freire, Paulo. “Pedagogy of the Oppressed.” In Oppression, Privilege, and Resistance, eds. Lisa Heldke and Peg O’Connor. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2004. Print. MO. Gendered language due to translation from Portuguese. Pp9-10
14 +The same is true with respect to the individual oppressor as a person. Discovering himself to be an oppressor may cause considerable anguish, but it does not necessarily lead to solidarity with the oppressed. Rationalizing his guilt through paternalistic treatment of the oppressed, all the while holding them fast in a position of dependence, will not do. Solidarity requires that one enter into the situation of those with whom one is solidary; it is a radical posture. If what characterizes the oppressed is their subordination to the consciousness of the master, as Hegel affirms, true solidarity with the oppressed means fighting at their side to transform the objective reality which has made them these “beings for another.” The oppressor is solidary with the oppressed only when he stops regarding the oppressed as an abstract category and sees them as persons who have been unjustly dealt with, deprived of their voice, cheated in the sale of their labor—when he stops making pious, sentimental, and individualistic gestures and risks an act of love. True solidarity is found only in the plenitude of this act of love, in its existentiality, in its praxis. To affirm that men are persons and as persons should be free, and yet to do nothing tangible to make this affirmation a reality, is a farce. ¶ Since it is in a concrete situation that the oppressor-oppressed contradiction is established, the resolution of this contradiction must be objectively verifiable. Hence, the radical requirement—both for the man who discovers himself to be an oppressor and for the oppressed—that the concrete situation which begets oppression must be transformed.
15 +Second, debate entails a unique obligation to prioritize anti-colonial struggle
16 +a) Small and symbolic acts of resistance are crucial to long-term change because they legitimate new ideologies. This is the only way to replace toxic worldviews with better ones. Gilmore 07
17 +Gilmore, Ruth Wilson. Associate Professor of Geography, Director of Program in American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California Golden Gulag: Prisons, Surplus, Crisis, and Opposition in Globalizing California. London: University of California Press, 2007. Print. MO. Pp 242-244
18 +If we take to heart the fact that we make places, things, and selves, but not under conditions of our own choosing, then it is easier to take the risk of conceiving change as something both short of and longer than a single cataclysmic event. Indeed, the chronicles of revolutions all show how persistent small changes, and altogether unexpected consolidations, added up to enough weigh, over time and space, to cause a break with the old order. Certainly, the political forces that hold governmental power in the United States of the early twenty-first century figured this out and persisted for decades until they won. With persistence, practices and theories circulate, enabling people to see problems and their solutions differently—which then creates the possibility of further, sometimes innovative, action.¶ Such change is not just a shift in ideas or vocabulary or frameworks, but rather in the entire structure of meanings and feelings (the lived ideology, or “taking to heart”) through which we actively understand the world and place our actions in it (Williams 1961). Ideology matters along its entire continuum, from common sense (“where people are at”) to philosophies (where people imagine the coherence of their understanding comes from: Jesus, Mohammed, the Buddha, Marx, Malcom X, the market).¶ The bottom line is this: if the twentieth century was the age of genocide on a planetary sale, then in order to avoid repeating history, we ought to prioritize coming to grips with dehumanization. Dehumanization names the deliberate, as well as the mob-frenzied, ideological displacements central to any group’s ability to annihilate another in the name of territory, wealth, ethnicity, religion. Dehumanization is also a necessary factor in the acceptance that millions of people (sometimes including oneself) should spend part or all of their lives in cages.¶
6 6  
7 -After a ban on nuclear power, coal consumption would rise dramatically. Nakata 2002
8 -Toshihiko Nakata Professor at Tohoku University, “Analysis of the impacts of nuclear phase-out on energy systems in Japan” April 2002
9 -Fig. 3 illustrates the changes in the electric power generation under the nuclear phase-out case. The total energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emissions for four scenarios in the year 2041 are shown in Table 4. We can see three ways in which the system has adjusted to make up the nuclear boiler after its phasing out: ∂ The use of coal boiler and coal IGCC rise and the total coal consumption rises by four times. The use of gas combined-cycles and gas boiler rise gradually, and the total gas consumption ∂ grows by three times. The renewables are not seen in the electricity market.
10 -
11 -Germany proves that ending the production of nuclear power results in the increased use of coal.
12 -Lindsay Abrams (Staff Writer at Salon on sustainable energy), "Germany’s clean energy plan backfired", Salon, 07/30/2013, www.salon.com/2013/07/30/germanys_clean_energy_plan_backfired/
13 -When a nuclear power plant closes, a coal plant opens. At least, that’s the way things are shaping up in Germany, where the move away from nuclear energy appears to have backfired. For the second consecutive year, according to Bloomberg, the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions are set to increase. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made headlines back in 2011 when, in the wake of the reactor meltdown in Tokyo, she announced the impending closure of Germany’s 17 nuclear reactors. Up until then, nuclear-generated energy contributed to a full quarter of the nation’s electricity. At the time, the closings were framed as a positive effort to increase the country’s use of clean energy. As an expert then predicted to the New York Times: “If the government goes ahead with what it said it would do, then Germany will be a kind of laboratory for efforts worldwide to end nuclear power in an advanced economy.” But predictably, when nuclear plants began to shut down, as eight immediately did, something else had to take its place. And coal, which according to Bloomberg is favored by the market, did just that. In the absence of a strong government plan to push natural gas and renewable forms of energy, the share of electricity generated from coal rose from 43 percent in 2010 to 52 percent in the first half of this year, according to the World Nuclear Association.
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15 -Impact
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17 -The use of coal leads to detrimental health issues and is largely responsible for global warming. Keating 2001.
18 -Martha Keating (Policy Advisor at U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), “Cradle to Grave: the Environmental Impacts from Coal”, Clean Air Task Force, June, 2001 SD
19 -The electric power industry is the largest toxic polluter in the country, and coal, which is used to generate over half of
the electricity produced in the
U.S., is the dirtiest of all fuels.1
From mining to coal cleaning,
from transportation to electricity
generation to disposal, coal
releases numerous toxic pollut-
ants into our air, our waters and onto our lands.2 Nation- ally, the cumulative impact of all of these effects is magnified by the enormous quantities of coal burned each year – nearly 900 million tons. Promoting more coal use without also providing additional environmental safe- guards will only increase this toxic abuse of our health and ecosystems. ∂ The trace elements contained in coal (and others formed during combustion) are a large group of diverse pollutants with a number of health and environmental effects.3 They are a public health concern because at sufficient exposure levels they adversely affect human health. Some are known to cause cancer, others impair reproduc- tion and the normal development of children, and still others damage the nervous and immune systems. Many are also respira- tory irritants that can worsen respiratory conditions such as asthma. They are an environmen- tal concern because they damage ecosystems. Power plants also emit large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2), the “greenhouse gas” 2 largely responsible for climate change.

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21 -
22 -The presence of coalmines in an area detrimentally affects the communities there, who are extremely poor minorities. Keating 2001.
23 -Martha Keating (Policy Advisor at U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), “Cradle to Grave: the Environmental Impacts from Coal”, Clean Air Task Force, June, 2001
24 -Children living in the vicinity of power plants have the highest health risks. Adults are also at risk from contami- nated groundwater and from inhaling dust from the facility. The poverty rate of people living within one mile of power plant waste facilities is twice as high as the national average and the percentage of non-white populations within one mile is 30 percent higher than the national average.51 ∂ Consequently, there may be other factors that make these people more vulnerable to health risks from these facilities. These include age (both young and old), nutritional status and access to health care. Also, these people are exposed to numerous other air pollutants emitted from the power plant smokestacks and possibly to air pollution from other nearby industrial facilities or lead paint in the home. Similar high poverty rates are found in 118 of the 120 coal-producing counties in America where power plant combustion wastes are increasingly being disposed of in unlined, under-regulated coal mine pits often directly into groundwater. ∂ Mineworkers and their families also often reside in the communities where the coal is being mined. Some of the additional health risks and dangers to residents of ∂ coal mining communities include injuries and fatalities related to the collapse of highwalls, roads and homes adjacent to or above coal seams being mined; the blasting of flyrock offsite onto a homeowner’s land or public roadway; injury and/ or suffocation at abandoned mine sites; and the inhalation of airborne fine dust particles off-site.
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28 -Global warming leads to the extinction of people and animals. Urban 2015
29 -Mark C. Urban “Accelerating extinction risk from climate change” Science 01 May 2015:
30 -Overall, 7.9 of species are predicted to become extinct from climate change; (95 CIs, 6.2 and 9.8) (Fig. 1). Results were robust to model type, weighting scheme, statistical method, potential publication bias, and missing studies (fig. S1 and table S2) (6). This proportion supports an estimate from a 5-year synthesis of studies (7). Its divergence from individual studies (1–4) can be explained by their specific assumptions and taxonomic and geographic foci. These differences provide the opportunity to understand how divergent factors and assumptions influence extinction risk from climate change.∂ The factor that best explained variation in extinction risk was the level of future climate change. The future global extinction risk from climate change is predicted not only to increase but to accelerate as global temperatures rise (regression coefficient = 0.53; CIs, 0.46 and 0.61) (Fig. 2). Global extinction risks increase from 2.8 at present to 5.2 at the international policy target of a 2°C post-industrial rise, which most experts believe is no longer achievable (8). If the Earth warms to 3°C, the extinction risk rises to 8.5. If we follow our current, business-as-usual trajectory representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5; 4.3°C rise, climate change threatens one in six species (16). Results were robust to alternative data transformations and were bracketed by models with liberal and conservative extinction thresholds (figs. S2 and S3 and table S3).∂ Regions also differed significantly in extinction risk (ΔDIC = 12.6) (Fig. 3 and table S4). North America and Europe were characterized by the lowest risks (5 and 6, respectively), and South America (23) and Australia and New Zealand (14) were characterized by the highest risks. These latter regions face no-analog climates (9) and harbor diverse assemblages of endemic species with small ranges. Extinction risks in Australia and New Zealand are further exacerbated by small land masses that limit shifts to new habitat (10). Poorly studied regions might face higher risks, but insights are limited without more research (for example, only four studies in Asian ). Currently, most predictions (60) center on North America and Europe, suggesting a need to refocus efforts toward less studied and more threatened regions.
20 +b) As an educator, the judge has an obligation to re-shape our educational activity by adopting a historicized narrative that highlights mistreatment of indigenous people and other marginalized groups.
21 +hooks, bell. “overcoming white supremacy: a comment.” In Oppression, Privilege, and Resistance, eds. Lisa Heldke and Peg O’Connor. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2004. Print. MO. Pp 71
22 +Recently in a conversation with a white male lawyer at his home where I was a guest, he informed me that someone had commented to him that children are learning very little history these days in school, that the attempt to be all-inclusive, to talk about Native Americans, blacks, women, etc. has led to a fragmented focus on particular individuals with no larger historical framework. I responded to this comment by suggesting that it has been easier for white people to practice this inclusion rather than change the larger framework; that it is easier to change the focus from Christopher Columbus, the important white man who “discovered” America, to Sitting Bull or Harriet Tubman, than it is to cease telling a distorted version of U.S. history which upholds white supremacy. Really teaching history in a new way would require abandoning the old myths informed by white supremacy like the notion that Columbus discovered America. It would mean talking about imperialism, colonization, about the Africans who came here before Columbus (see Ivan Van Sertima’s They Came Before Columbus). It would mean talking about genocide, about the white colonizers’ exploitation and betrayal of Native American Indians; about the ways the legal and governmental structures of this society from the Constitution on supported and upheld slavery, apartheid (see Derrick Bell’s And We Are Not Saved). This history can be taught only when the perspectives of teachers are no longer shaped by white supremacy. Our conversation is one of the many examples that reveal the way black people and white people can socialize in a friendly manner, be racially integrated, while deeply ingrained notions of white supremacy remain intact. Incidents like this make it necessary for concerned folks, for righteous white people, to begin to fully explore the way white supremacy determines how they see the world, even as their actions are not informed by the type of racial prejudice that promotes overt discrimination and separation.
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1 -Increase security
2 -Plan
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4 -In the squo, we are not doing enough to prevent dirty bomb terror attacks. If we secure nuclear materials and improve protection of nuclear reactors and used uranium, we can stop these attacks. Solves subpoint b and c Ciricione 2016
5 -Joe Ciricione. “Nuclear Terrorist Risk Greater than you Think” CNN. April 1, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/01/opinions/nuclear-terrorism-threat-cirincione/
6 -Nuclear policy experts can seem like Cassandra, constantly prophesizing apocalyptic futures. In case you haven't noticed, we don't live in a Mad Max world devastated by nuclear war. Terrorists have not blown up New York with a makeshift nuclear bomb. We haven't bankrupted ourselves, despite the trillions of dollars spent on Cold War weapons.Cassandra's curse, however, was not that she was wrong, but that no one believed her. I don't know a single nuclear expert who thinks that the threat of nuclear terrorism is shrinking. I don't know a single one who thinks that the actions taken by world leaders at this week's Nuclear Security Summit are enough. We are fearful. And you should be, too.Chills went down a lot of experts' spines last month when we saw the news that the Brussels bombers, the ISIS terrorists who blew up the airport and attacked the metro, were secretly videotaping a Belgian nuclear official. This official worked at a facility that had radiological material that terrorists could use for a "dirty bomb." We do not know if they were filming him or his family, if there was a kidnap plot in motion, or what their exact plans were. But this is not some Hollywood fantasy. This is real. A nuclear terrorist event may becloser than you think.What are the risks? First, that terrorists could steal a complete nuclear weapon, like SPECTRE in the James Bond thriller, "Thunderball." This is hard, but not impossible. The key risk is that the outside terrorists get insider help: For example, a radical jihadist working at a Pakistan weapon storage site. Or the Belgian base just outside Brussels where we still stash a half-dozen nuclear weapons left over from Cold War deployments. Or the Incirlik air base in Turkey where we keep an estimated 50 weapons just 200 miles from the Syrian border.Second, terrorists could steal the "stuff" of a bomb, highly enriched uranium or plutonium. They cannot make this themselves ~-~- that requires huge, high-tech facilities that only nations can construct. But if they could get 50 or 100 pounds of uranium ~-~- about the size of a bag of sugar ~-~- they could construct a crude Hiroshima-style bomb. ISIS, with its money, territory and global networks, poses the greatest threat to do this that we have ever seen. Such a bomb brought by truck or ship or FedEx to an urban target could kill hundreds of thousands, destroy a city and put the world's economy and politics into shock.Third, there is the possibility of a dirty bomb. Frankly, many of us are surprised this has not happened already. I spoke to Jon Stewart on his show 15 years ago about the danger. This is not a nuclear explosion unleashed by splitting atoms, but simply a conventional explosive, like dynamite, laced with radioactive material, like cesium or strontium. A 10-pound satchel of dynamite mixed with less than 2 ounces of cesium (about the size of a pencil eraser) could spew a radioactive cloud over tens of square blocks. No one would die, unless they were right next to the explosion. But the material would stick to the buildings. Inhaling just a speck would greatly increase your risk of getting cancer. You could go into the buildings, but no one would. There would be mass panic and evacuations, and the bomb would render a port, financial district, or government complex unusable and uninhabitable for years until scrubbed clean. Economic losses could be in the trillions.Fourth, terrorists could just attack a nuclear power reactor, fuel storage or other site to trigger a massive radioactive release that could contaminate hundreds or thousands of square miles, like Chernobyl or Fukushima. While nuclear reactors are hardened against outside attack, including by the intentional crash of a medium-sized jet plane, larger planes could destroy them. Or a series of suicide truck bombers. But it might not even take a physical explosion. This week, it was reported the United States and the United Kingdom are to simulate a cyberattack on a nuclear power plant.Can we prevent these attacks? Yes, by eliminating, reducing and securing all supplies of nuclear materials so that terrorists would find it too difficult to get them. And by reducing and better protecting nuclear reactors and spent nuclear fuel. Are we doing enough? No. "The capabilities of some terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State, have grown dramatically," says Harvard scholar and former Bush Administration official William Tobey, "In a net calculation, the risk of nuclear terrorism is higher than it was two years ago."The United States spends about $35 billion on nuclear weapons every year. This year, we will spend $1.8 billion on all our efforts to stop the spread these weapons and stop nuclear terrorism. You don't have to be a nuclear expert to know something is out of whack here.It is time we put our money where our threats are.
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1 +Framework
2 + First, in order to value our own humanity, we must value it in others. The standard ought to be practice of a solidarity grounded on common humanity.
3 +Reichlin, Massimo, “The role of solidarity in social responsibility for health”, Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy, Nov 2011. DM
4 +Human solidarity thus encompasses a concern for equal rights and fair equality of opportunity, but cannot be reduced to it. It adds a sense of belonging together that does not build on any particular identity of interests by the members of different social groups, but on the basic value of human dignity; it adds a sense of unity that does not aim at levelling the differences between different members, but incorporates the differences, not devaluing the individuality of particular cultures and histories. To the extent that it builds on the ‘naked’ humanity of the other, human solidarity acknowledges the rich diversity of individuals and of cultures, empathising with the several different paths along which human beings pursue their well-being and the meaning of their lives by constructing cultures and social traditions. Human solidarity is a disposition to feel and to act towards others that does not remove nor undervalues their otherness, but rather preserves it and promotes it.¶ In this perspective, solidarity is itself an element and a condition of the universalistic morality of justice; for the protection of individual rights calls for the defence of the soil in which such rights take their roots, of the form of life in which relationships of mutual recognition can flourish and human dignity can be respected. In this sense, the notion of solidarity can be conceived of as the connecting link between equal individual rights and the notion of common good; it is the ‘warm side’ of the Enlightenment insistence on individual rights, and the clearest denial of any purely negative and ‘cold’ interpretation of universal human rights. In fact, as already mentioned, while falling short of sentimental love or sympathy for humanity, human solidarity has a basic emotive component, being grounded on a sense of empathy and felt participation with the predicament of other human beings (Arnsperger and Varoufakis 2003). This emotive component, however, must not be emphasised to the point of reducing the justification of solidarity to the historical and contingent fact of feeling some kind of empathy towards fellow human beings. It is not just that we happen to have developed human solidarity, nor that we just happen to have come to believe in human rights, owing to the development of certain predispositions to feel about our brothers in humanity.4 The justification of solidarity rather lies in the fact that it singles out certain general features of being human that are valued throughout the different cultures and ways of life. Human solidarity is not based on immediate feelings; rather on the reflection—which emerged progressively, fighting against contrary feelings and perceptions—that human dignity is grounded on general features inherent in the human condition, not on traits that are specific to certain cultures and ways of life. It is based on the recognition that valuing humanity in ourselves implies valuing it in others, and that our own humanity and dignity is not quite safe, unless the humanity and dignity of our fellow humans is protected as well.
5 +
6 +Second, spatial identity is fundamental to human functioning – The human need for familiar places is common to all because such places represent the accumulated history of our experiences and relationships and are the sites of our hopes and aspirations.
7 +Fried, Marc Research Professor and Director, Institute of Human Sciences, Boston College, “ Grieving for a Lost Home: Psychological Costs of Relocation”, The Urban Condition, 1963. DM
8 +In stressing the importance of places and access to local facilities, we wish only to redress the almost total neglect of spatial dimensions in dealing with human behavior. We certainly do not mean thereby to give too little emphasis to the fundamental importance of interpersonal relationships and social organization in defining the meaning of the area. Nor do we wish to underestimate the significance of cultural orientations and social organization in defining the character and importance of spatial dimensions. However, the crisis of loss of a residential area brings to the fore the importance of the local spatial region and alerts us to the greater generality of spatial conceptions as determinants of behavior. In fact, we might say that a sense of spatial identity is fundamental to human functioning. It represents a phenomenal or ideational integration of important experiences concerning environmental arrangements and contacts in relation to the individual's conception of his own body in space. It is based on spatial memories, spatial imagery, the spatial framework of current activity, and the implicit spatial components of ideals and aspirations.
9 +
10 +Plan
11 +Plan Text: The member states of the European Union will ban the production of commercial land-based nuclear electricity and phase out all nuclear power plants by 2025.
12 +INFORSE, International Network for Sustainable Energy- Europe, “ECOs for a Nuclear-Free Europe.” nd. Acc 17 sep 2016. MO. http://www.inforse.org/europe/nucefree.htm
13 +The phase-out of nuclear power in Europe is an important part in the development of an energy sector without adverse effects or special risks to the environment and to human health. A number of environmental ministers agreed upon this in Sofia in 1995. We call upon all countries to join this effort, and to set a time-frame for the phase-out. ¶Further, we call upon the countries to transform into actions the agreements made in Sofia and Luzern to phase out the most dangerous nuclear power plants. Concrete plans and timetables for the phase-out are absolutely necessary. The plans must be backed up by international cooperation as well as by support from other countries and international organisations like the EU and EBRD. This support should include a safe phase-out as well as the development of alternative supplies and energy conservation to meet the demand. ¶Finally, we call upon all countries and international organisations to stop the planning, funding, and construction of new nuclear power plants immediately. The present preferential treatment of nuclear power plant in the EU and elsewhere should be stopped immediately.
14 +INFORSE 2 clarifies the details of the plan
15 +INFORSE, International Network for Sustainable Energy- Europe, “Sustainable Energy Vision for the EU-27 – Phase out of Fossil and Nuclear Energy Until 2040.” July 2011. Acc 17 sep 2016. MO. http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionEU27.htm
16 +The European Sustainable Energy Vision includes a vision for the transition of the energy supply and demand for the 27 EU countries to 100 renewable energy together with phase-out of fossil and nuclear energy until 2040. With the vision and the underlying scenario is a reduction of CO2 emissions from energy use of just above 40 until 2020 and just above 70 until 2030 from the 1990 level for all energy use except aviation and international navigation that are not included in the scenario and vision.¶ The new EU-countries already had large reductions since 1990, so the reductions proposed are larger than for the 15 "old" countries from 1990, but smaller from 2000. The scenario is based on technical and economic realistic developments of energy efficiency, renewable energy, interactive ("smart") grids, and social developments. Since the developments are technical and economical feasible, the main question for their realisation is the political will in the 27 EU countries.¶ The INFORSE vision for the EU is based on a scenario made with INFORSE's spreadsheet tool that describes the possible development of energy flows decade by decade, with 5 year steps. The current Sustainable Energy Vision for EU-27 is made in 2010 and is based on earlier versions from 2008, 2007 and 2004. Economic assessments are made for some of the EU countries.¶ The Need to Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions As we already experience problems of changing climate, it is no longer possible to avoid harmful climate change; but by reducing emissions we can reduce the frequency of larger climate catastrophes that deprives larger populations of their homes, livelihoods, or even lives. The EU has agreed to reduce global warming to 2'C; but that might no even be enough to avoid major negative climate effects. Reductions of the 27 EU countries of 40 in 2020 and 70 in 2030 on the way to phase out fossil fuels and similar sharp reductions in other countries (developing countries emissions should peak until 2017), will give 70-85 certainty that the global average temperature will remain below 2'C.¶ Read more about the needs to limit greenhouse gases. Factor 4 for Energy Efficiency Until 2050, Starting With Ecodesign and then Factor 2 Until 2030 In line with the global vision, the European Vision is based on rapid growth of energy efficiency to reach an average level in 2050 similar to best available technologies today. Most energy consuming equipment will be changed several times until 2050, and if new generations of equipment are made with optimal energy performance, and markets are made to promote the most efficient technology, it will not be a problem to reach today's best available technology, even though the efficiency gains required are very large, - in the order of 4 times, similar to an annual increase of efficiency of over 2 per year from 2010. This will not happen by itself, given that the "natural" technological development has been 1 per year or less. It will require concerted action from all stakeholders involved, but indications are that if the market is large enough for each new generation of efficient equipment, it will be a cost-effective development - the extra equipment costs will be off-set by energy savings. It will also benefit equipment manufacturers that will get better products, also for the world market.¶ The EU countries are already increasing their energy efficiency with an increasing rate compared with the period before 2005, when the EU Ecodesign Directive entered into force. If the currently planned Ecodesign regulation and energy efficiency labelling is passed, and it is followed by national energy efficiency promotion, the energy efficiency can increase 25 until 2020 from 2005. If the current best available technology on the market becomes the norm by 2030, the energy efficiency increase can be 45 for the sector covered by Ecodesign regulation. If the development continues toward the factor four energy efficiency, by 2040 the energy efficiency increase can be 60 or maybe more. ¶ These increase in energy efficiency do not mean that the consumption is reduced with 25, 45 or 60, as the demand for energy services will increase, but substantial energy demand reductions are indeed possible, if ambitious energy efficiency policies are combined with policies to limit the growth of energy services. The sectors covered by Ecodesign is electricity consuming products for household, service sector and to some degree productive sectors. Regulation of energy efficiency in industry, and a higher effective energy price, can lead to the same savings in industry, and even slightly higher savings in industrial heating. For agriculture a slower introduction of energy efficiency is expected.¶ The Challenge of Reducing Heat Consumption For buildings, the situation is different from equipment because buildings often have lifetimes of 100 years or more. Most of the houses to be heated in 2050 are probably already built. In this vision the target heat consumption is 66 kWh/m2 as average in 2040. This will require about a 58 reduction compared with year 2000 EU-27 average, but "only" 53 compared with the 2010 level as the specific heat consumption did reduce considerably in the decade since 2000. (in 2000 the EU average heat consumption in dwellings was 158 kWh/m2 according to the Odysee database, while in 2008 it was only 139 kWh/m2, a reduction of 12. If this is corrected for weather differences between the two years, the reduction was 9. Therefore we expect an 11 reduction 2000 - 2010). If energy-efficiency measures are included in renovations, such a change is possible. The increase in efficiency is estimated to be 2.5/year from 2010, on top of the 11 total 2000-2010. This could be realised by: • raising building-codes to current low-energy housing levels within 1-3 years, • require that all major renovations include a major energy-renovation, • increase energy renovations with financing, advice, campaigns, etc., and • embark on a major program for passive-houses to achieve that the majority of new buildings are built as passive houses, as required before 2020 by the Energy Performance of Building's Directive.¶ Passive houses" are buildings where internal energy sources and passive solar energy supply close to 100 of the demand for space heating, also called "near zero energy houses".¶ Efficient Transport There are very large potentials for energy efficiency in the transport sector. For the first decade the EU agreement to decrease CO2 emissions to 95 g/km in 2020 will increase energy efficiency of new cars with 41 from 2000, where the average emission was 160 g/km. For the car fleet average we therefore expect a 19 reduction 2000 - 2020. From 2020 the vision includes a large-scale shift to electric cars that are 4 times as efficient as cars with combustion engines. After 2030 is also expected a massive shift to hydrogen and hydrogen-electric cars. With the expected transition to electric and hydrogen cars, the energy efficiency increase be 54 until 2030 and 67 by 2040, compared with 2000. The efficiency increase until 2050 will be 75 compared with 2000, so the cars will then be 4 times as efficient. This is made by a combination of the shift to electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the more efficient technologies, as planned until 2020, and use of break-energy recovering. The biofuel is only expected to play a minor role, fuelling about 3 of the cars in 2050, as it is an inefficient technology similar to traditional petrol-fuelled cars.¶ For rail and navigation is "only" included increase in efficiency gains of 46, and 32 respectively, but trains will remain more efficient than cars for both personal and freight transport, and they are expected to take over substantial transport from roads in the vision.¶ Will Higher Efficiencies Be Possible? There is not doubt that higher efficiencies will be possible than the factor 2-4 increases included in this vision; but given the current difficulties with realisation of efficiency potentials in many European countries, the efficiency increases proposed in this vision have been limited to the factor 2-4. It is proven that for individual industrial companies and houses, factor 4-10 is possible as increase in efficiency. The challenge is to realise the efficiency on national and international levels.¶ Decoupling Growth The growth of energy services, i.e. heated floor space, transported goods and people, energy consuming production, is expected to reach saturation levels during the 50-year period of the vision. This is in line with the perception that the average Western Europeans have reached a sufficient level of material consumption to satisfy needs, and that material growth should gradually be stopped leaving environmental space for the poorer parts of the world. The new EU countries are expected to have higher material growth in the first decades and then gradually lower growth as they approach EU-average. If the gradual reduction of growth of energy services is to be realised, it will require that the growth of energy services does not follow the expected economic growth, i.e. that the economic growth is decoupled from growth in material consumption such as energy services. Alternatively the economic growth should reduce, as it has in recent years. If economic growth continues with 2.5 per year, GDP will double every 30 year, and will have increased 3.4 times in 50 years. A 2.5 economic growth is a normal growth rate that economists typically expect (or hope) for Western European countries. If this level of economic growth is to continue, the challenge for realisation of the sustainable development described with this vision is to triple the economic value expressed as GDP compared with energy consuming structures and activities. Assumed average EU growth in energy services until 2040:¶ Floor space, household: 30 increase 2000 - 2040 with 11 in the first decade and 5/decade after 2010.¶ Electric appliances in households: higher growth than floor space, i.e. 36 in the period 2000 - 2040 ¶ Industry: no growth in physical production volume, i.e. 0 in growth 2000 - 2050, but substantial growth in electrification. The value of the products are also expected to grow.¶ Service sector: 55 growth in physical activities 2000 - 2040 and in addition increased electrification, so the energy demand level for electrification will increase 64 in the period. Physical activity level increased about 30 2000 - 2010.¶ Personal transport: the vision includes a 19 reduction in private car use from 2000 to 2040 and a doubling in train and tram use as well an increase in bus use of 20. As car use is expected to grow 9 2000 - 2010, the proposed reduction from 2010 to 2040 is 25, which is expected to happen gradually from 2020, when the new public transport is available. This is a vision of a more human and sustainable transport. ¶ Freight transport: the vision includes a 26 reduction in road freight combined with 2.25 times increase in rail freight from 2000 to 2040. Given the expected increase in road freight of 24 from 2000 to 2010, the reduction with 2010 as basis will be about 40. In addition to modal shift, this large reduction is expected by applying a real cost on road transport and thereby avoiding long-distance transport of low-value goods where the transport generates little economic or societal benefits.¶ For the 12 "new" EU countries is expected higher growth than for EU average, mainly for the service sector and in road transport. For both these sectors is expected a 2 - 2.5 times increase above the 2000-level of activities, even more for some countries.¶ The developments of energy services in electricity consumption and transport is below current trends, and require new policies to be realised. For electricity consumption the policies can be to discourage the very inefficient use of direct electric heating, consumer information on total energy demand rather than energy efficiency, and product taxation based on total energy consumption. For transport the measures include, among others, environmental taxes on transport including road pricing and increased petrol taxes, land-use planning to reduce transport, stop of tax breaks to increase transport, stop for subsidizing road construction. See also INFORSE-Europe Energy Sufficiency Page.¶ Renewable Energy Targets The vision follows the target proposed by a large number of NGOs and the European Parliament of 25 renewable energy in 2020. The target for 2030 is 57 and in 2040 above 98.¶ Windpower The growth in windpower have been strong in recent years, with capacities added of about 9000 MW/year in recent years for the EU. This growth is expected to continue with growth of 10000 MW/year until 2020 and then 14,000 MW/year until 2040. The European wind industry has the capacity to develop windpower much faster, but the siting etc. seems to be the limiting factor. Then there will be 460,000 MW of windpower in the EU, including off-shore turbines. This will give a windpower production of of 1150 TWh/year, similar to the potential used in the European Renewable Energy Council's (EREC's) "Rethining2050" report from 2010. The figures correspond well with previous figures from the Windforce'10 report made by European Wind Energy Association, Greenpeace and Forum for Energy and Development and later updated by INFORSE-Europe for Europe. See Windforce-text.¶ Solar Solar heating as well as solar electricity are expected to play large roles. Solar heating can cover at 10-30 of the heating demand, and more if seasonal storage is introduced. The development is expected to continue from current trends. The solar heating development is expected to start with the current large expansion that was 2.7 times in the period 2005 - 2010 and then continue with the same increase rate until 2020, when there will be 360 mill. m2 solar collectors. Then we expect a slightly slower large-scale increase leading to 1 billion m2 in 2030 and about 2 billion m2 by 2040 equal to 4.1 m2/person by 2040. The development after 2010 is considerably stronger than forecasted by EREC. The development after 2030 will require some energy storages of 1-3 months in some (Northern) parts of EU, to reach the expected solar coverage of 1/3 of buildings demand for space heating and hot water.¶ The installed capacity for solar electric generation was 16,000 MW by the end of 2009 and is expected to take off as costs are reaching grid parity in more and more parts of EU. The expectations are for all solar electric capacity (PV and solar thermal electric) the following development: - 150,000 MW in 2020, 180 TWh, - 400,000 MW in 2030, 480 TWh, and - 700,000 MW in 2040, 840 TWh This is in line with forecasts by EREC in the "Rethining2050" report from 2010.¶ Biomass While the biomass growth has been lower than expected for instance in the EU White Paper for Renewable Energy from 1997, use of solid biomass has grown substantially from a level of 2100 PJ in 2000 for the EU-15, and is expected to grow further to 4100 PJ in 2020 in the EU-15, a limit proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change in 2003. The limit for the 12 new countries is set to 1800 PJ, following other estimates, and a total for EU of 5900 PJ.¶ In addition to solid biomass is included use of biogas of 750 PJ (210 TWh gas), 8 times the level in 2000 for EU-15 and 125 PJ for the 12 "new" countries, in total 875 PJ. The increase in biogas use is based on an estimation of a total biogas potential in EU-15 of 209 TWh from Biogas in Europe: A General Overview by Jens Bo Holm-Nielsen, MSc. and Teodorita AI Seadi, Sc, Southern Danish University.¶ Energy forests are expected to be used after 2010, in addition to the solid biomass from existing sources, and to reach a level of about 7 of present agricultural land by 2020 and 9 by 2040. This is expected to give a total energy input of 2600 PJ in 2040.¶ In addition to this is included liquid biofuels, to be used in transportation, construction and other sectors. The use of biofuels is expected to reach about 500 PJ. This can be produced with use of about 7 of the agricultural land extensively, i.e. with crops that also produce fodder and without extra demand for agricultural inputs. This will fuel about 3 of transport demand for land transport, but will provide about 10 of the energy input as biofuel vehicles are much less efficient than electric transport. With this ,the 10 renewables in transport target by 2020 will not be reached with biofuels, but with the expected transition to 10 electric and hydrogen vehicles in 2020, the target can be reached in this way.¶ Hydropower For hydropower is expected a 20 growth for EU-15. This is similar to the growth expected in the EU White Paper for Renewable Energy, but it is only expected to be realised by 2020. For the "new" countries is expected about 65 growth in average, including renovation of many smaller hydropower plants that were abandoned 1945-1990. The total potential in the new countries is substantially bigger than that, but many of the proposed large-scale hydropower projects are not included because of their problematic environmental effects.¶ Geothermal Energy and Others The use of geothermal energy for heating and electricity is expected to produce 1400 PJ of energy in 2040 for all EU countries, primarily for heating. This is lower than the potential identified by EREC in its "Rethining2050" report from 2010, because in the INFORSE-Europe vision is only included about 1/3 of the additional long-term potential in "Rethinking2050", as this is somewhat undertain, such as the use of heat from hot dry rock.¶ In addition to geothermal energy that is energy from the earth, comes contributions from heat pumps that collects ambient heat which from the soil, water, air, etc. Heat pumps are are expected to play a role to balance the electricity load, primarily for the EU-15 that have the highest fraction of intermittent electricity production.The heat pumps are expected to collect about 1500 PJ in 2040 including more than 500 PJ for heat pumps in district heating and 600 PJ for heat pumps in dwellings. Heat pumps can give some new flexible electricity demand, as explained below.¶ Other renewables, such as wave-power can also play a large role in the future, but have not been assessed for this vision. They could give a considerable contribution after 2020.¶ Nuclear and Fossil Energy Nuclear energy is expected to be phased out as the current nuclear reactors are stopped because of age, safety problems etc. This is expected to happen mainly 2015-2025. For fossil fuels are expected a gradual phase-out until 2040. A change from coal to gas is expected in the period 2010 - 2020, and a closure of primarily coal fired power plants 2010 - 2030.For space heating is expected a rapid phase out of oil and coal heating followed by a replacement of gas heating with district heating and heat pumps.
17 +
18 +Advantage One is Nuclear Disaster
19 +Toss out the perception of nuclear plants humming away in the middle of empty fields. That exists in North America but not in Europe, where there are no such open spaces. The countryside is dominated by small towns that will inevitably be destroyed by even the smallest nuclear mishap. The population is six times more dense than in the USA. Europe is populated too densely to ensure the safety of its people in case of an accident. It doesn’t need to be Fukushima; it just needs to be inevitable.
20 +Petrangeli, Gianni. Consultant to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Association) and researcher for nuclear safety for the European Commission; member of the Faculty Council for the Doctorate in Nuclear and Industrial Safety, University of Pisa, Italy Nuclear Safety. Butterworth-Heinemann, 2006. Google Books. MO. Pp5
21 +In Europe, the need to take account of the specific plant features for the evaluation of the acceptability of the site arises from the much higher population density in Europe in comparison with that of the USA (approximately 200 inhabitants per square kilometre and 30 per square kilometre, respectively). It is therefore much more difficult to find low population sites in Europe.¶ The different population densities in Europe and the USA has also brought about differences in accident emergency plans: in the USA, the provision of a complete evacuation of the population within 16 km of the plant in a Few hours is adopted, while in Europe the maximum comparable distance is equal to 10 km. It is indeed difficult to assure the evacuation of population centres with tens, hundreds or thousands of inhabitants. Here too, the countries’ differences in demographic conditions has to be compensated by additional plant features (generally, the use of double containment provided with inter- mediate filtration systems and the use of elevated stacks).
22 +Thousands will suffer from radiation sickness, but many thousands more will lose their homes. People can be evacuated – the major risk of nuclear power isn’t cancer. It’s the disruption of everyday life and loss of community. Any risk is an unacceptable risk when people’s homes and communities are at stake.
23 +Buongiorno, J., et al., “Technical Lessons Learned from the Fukushima-Daichii Accident and Possible Corrective Actions for the Nuclear Industry: An Initial Evaluation”, MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems, May 2011. DM
24 +Permanent and long-term relocation can reduce exposure to radiation to essentially zero levels above natural background. What is gained is the elimination of a tiny additional risk of cancer (maximum risk of 42.2 instead of 42.0 at 20 mSv). This cancer, if it appears, will be diagnosed many years, perhaps decades, in the future. But this gain comes with very significant costs. The costs include loss of home or farm (48,000 homes and over 400 livestock or dairy-farming households are in the evacuation region), loss of privacy (shelters are crowded and residence time is expected to be measured in months before alternative temporary housing will be available), and loss of community (whole towns and villages have been evacuated). Prohibition against consuming contaminated food and water results in no additional internal dose but, for a country already facing food shortages following a devastating earthquake and tsunami, the loss of valuable foodstuffs and interdiction of farmlands are a significant price to pay.
25 +The best data suggests that the possibility of another accident in the next 50 years at least as bad as Fukushima is a coin-toss. Nuclear accidents are a huge threat to European communities.
26 +MIT Technology Review, “The Chances of Another Chernobyl Before 2050? 50, Say Safety Specialists’” April 17, 2015. DM
27 +However, the largest accidents appear to follow an entirely different statistical distribution, probably because they occur as a result of set of entirely unforeseen combinations of circumstances.¶ These kinds of large unexpected events are known as dragon king events and particularly difficult to analyse because they follow this different distribution, have unforeseen causes, and are few in number.¶ Nevertheless, Wheatley and co say their data suggests that the nuclear industry remains vulnerable dragon king events. “There is a 50 chance that a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs in the next 50 years,” they say.¶ Fukushima was by far the most expensive accident in history at a cost of $166 billion. That’s 60 per cent of the total cost of all other nuclear accidents added together.¶ The team calculate that a Chernobyl-scale event, the most severe in terms of radiation release, is as likely as not in the next 27 years. And they say a Three Mile Island event in the next 10 years has a probability of 50 percent.
28 +Also, nuclear plants are so complicated that we cannot safeguard against any substantial proportion of possible accidents. Another accident will occur, even if we don’t know when. Relying on increased safety regulations is like saying that a shotgun is less accurate than a rifle; you’re dead either way.
29 +Perrow, Charles. Professor Emeritus of Sociology, Yale University “Fukushima and the inevitability of accidents.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 67.6 (2011): 44-52. MO.
30 + This litany of regulatory failures, failures to heed warnings, and commonplace failures is independent of normal accident theory. That theory says that even if we had excellent regulation and everyone played it safe, there would still be accidents in systems that are highly Òinteractively complex,Ó and if the systems are tightly coupled, even small failures will cascade through them. The theory is useful for its emphasis on system complexity and tight coupling; these concepts play a huge role in analyzing the failures of any source in risky systems. In the financial meltdown, for example, the mounting complexity of the overall system allowed fraud and self-dealing to go undetected, and the tight coupling of many systems allowed the failures to cascade. ¶In my work on Ònormal accidents,Ó I have argued that some complex organizationsÑsuch as chemical plants, nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons systems, and, to a more limited extent, air transport networksÑhave so many nonlinear system properties that eventually the unanticipated interaction of multiple failures may create an accident that no designer could have anticipated and no operator can understand.¶ Everything is subject to failureÑ designs, procedures, supplies and equipment, operators, and the environment. The government and businesses know this and design safety devices with multiple redundancies and all kinds of bells and whistles. But nonlinear, unexpected interactions of even small failures can defeat these safety systems. If the system is also tightly coupled, no intervention can prevent a cascade of failures that brings it down.¶ I use the term ÒnormalÓ because these characteristics are built into the systems; there is nothing one can do about them other than to initiate massive system redesigns to reduce interactive complexity and to loosen coupling. Companies and governments can modularize integrated designs and deconcentrate hazardous material. Actually, though, compared with the prosaic cases previously mentioned, normal accidents are rare. (Three Mile Island is the only accident in my list that qualifies.) It is much more common for systems with catastrophic potential to fail because of poor regulation, ignored warnings, production pressures, cost cutting, poor training, and so on.
31 +Fukushima isn’t even the worst-case scenario – nuclear disasters carry profound global implications as they are potentially fatal to the functioning of whole countries.
32 +Downer, John Global Insecurities Centre, School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies, Bristol University, “In the Shadow of Tomioka: On the institutional invisibility of nuclear disaster”, London School of Economics and Political Science Discussion Paper, December 2014. DM
33 +Even putting environmental and health implications of such an event aside, the fact that a single technological disaster could realistically have felled Japan’s capital city should weigh inexorably on the scales of any political calculation about nuclear power. Tokyo, arguably the most populous metropolitan area in the world, is home to over 35 million people: twice the population of New York, three times that of London. Together with those cities, it is widely considered one of the three ‘command centres’ of the global economy, with a GDP estimated at US$1,479 trillion in 2008 – the highest of any city on the planet. Should it have been lost in the fashion of Pripyat or Tomioka, the social, cultural and economic fallout would have been profound. The economic consequences alone would have represented a financial Götterdämmerung. The direct costs of losing Tokyo and repopulating its residents, combined with the lost revenues and opportunity costs associated with doing so, are difficult to estimate. There can be no doubt, however, that they would have been a profound shock to the global financial markets. At the very least, they would have jeopardised Japan’s ability to service its national debt. Critics have dismissed the Prime Minister’s statement about his nation’s sovereignty hanging in the balance as rhetorical embroidery, but in this context his assessment seems entirely sober. For all the manifest shortcomings of other energy options, it is difficult to imagine that any offer risks on such a scale.
34 +The mental health effects of nuclear catastrophe are a second disaster. At the very least, the aff plan ameliorates the fear that another disaster will happen.
35 +Worland, Justin. “This May Be the Biggest Health Threat From Fukushima—And It’s Still Ongoing,” Time, March 11, 2016. DM
36 +The 2011 earthquake that struck in Japan killed more than 15,000 people as buildings crumbled and tsunami surged. The meltdown at a local nuclear power plant led to lasting adverse health effects and the relocation of half a million area residents.¶ Now, five years after the incident, the lasting effects of the earthquake continue to threaten tens of thousands of residents of affected communities as survivors battle a mental health crisis of untold proportions.¶ “This is an ongoing disaster in a literal sense—not just rhetorically,” says Irwin Redlener, a professor at Columbia University who studies natural disasters. “The challenges they’re experiencing now are really overwhelming.”¶ The lingering chaos of the disaster represents perhaps the biggest contributor to ongoing mental health issues. Research published this week in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health this week shows that two thirds of residents who lived in the evacuation zone have moved more than three times since the disaster, suggesting they have been unable to resettle in a stable location. Nearly 40 of families had been separated by relocation.¶ A lack of trust in government authorities charged with protecting community health has also contributed to mental health problems. The country has continued to source huge portions of its power from nuclear plants and has not backed off plans to increase their use. Many residents live in fear that another disaster may be just around the corner. This overarching environment of suspicion and mistrust of the government carries over to other personal relationships. Some also experience stigma from those who think they may suffer from radiation. Others worry that their food may be affected by radiation.¶ Instability and distrust both contribute to a number of conditions faced by disaster survivors—from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) to depression. The new research attributes a spike in the regional suicide rate to the ongoing consequences of the disaster. The suicide rate in affected regions in Japan ranged from 110 to 138 deaths per 100,000 people in 2014, compared with just below 20 deaths per 100,000 people nationwide.¶ The disaster’s continuing mental health effects can be particularly devastating for children who have been displaced. Many have jumped between schools and have been separated from family members.¶ And the problem only worsens with each move or school swap.¶ “Their ability to be resilient is eroded over time,” says Redlener. “Children are very susceptible to the family dynamic, in addition to whatever trauma they may have experienced themselves.”
37 +
38 +Underview
39 +We should reject appeals to normative theories that justify the shifting of risk to others for selfish benefit.
40 +Taleb, Nassim arrogant asshole and Constantine Sandis, “The Skin In The Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Events,” Review of Behavioral Economics, 2014. DM
41 +The skin in the game heuristic is best viewed as a rule of thumb that places a pragmatic constraint on normative theories. Whatever the best moral theory (consequentialism, deontology, contractualism, virtue ethics, particularism etc.) or political ideology (socialism, capitalism, libertarianism) might be, the "rule " tells us that we should be suspicious of people who appeal to it to justify actions that pass the cost of any risk-taking to another party whilst keeping the benefits for themselves. At the heart of this heuristic lies a simple moral objection to negative asymmetry that lies at the heart of some of the oldest and most famous moral ideas, as illustrated in Table 2.¶ Of course the clearest examples of any rule are likely to stem from a deontological approach, but the skin in the game constraint is not committed to deontology. Indeed, moral symmetry is one of the key ideas behind many forms of social contract theory (e.g. "I scratch your back, you scratch mine"), and different emphases on symmetry may also be found in consequentialism (which places the overall good above that of the agent) and virtue ethics (which looks for an ethical mean between excess and deficiency).
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