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  • Caselist.RoundClass[2]
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Caselist.RoundClass[2]

EntryDate

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1		-2016-09-10 22:13:06.769
	1	+2016-09-10 22:13:06.0

Caselist.CitesClass[2]

Cites

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	1	+Climate Change DA
	2	+
	3	+Link
	4	+After a ban on nuclear power, coal consumption would rise dramatically. Nakata 2002
	5	+Toshihiko Nakata Professor at Tohoku University, “Analysis of the impacts of nuclear phase-out on energy systems in Japan” April 2002
	6	+Fig. 3 illustrates the changes in the electric power generation under the nuclear phase-out case. The total energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emissions for four scenarios in the year 2041 are shown in Table 4. We can see three ways in which the system has adjusted to make up the nuclear boiler after its phasing out: ∂ The use of coal boiler and coal IGCC rise and the total coal consumption rises by four times. The use of gas combined-cycles and gas boiler rise gradually, and the total gas consumption ∂ grows by three times. The renewables are not seen in the electricity market.
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	8	+Producing energy by burning fossil fuels is a significant contributor to global climate change. As energy demand increases so does the danger of anthropogenic global warming.
	9	+IAEA 2013 – International Atomic Energy Agency, “Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2013,” Vienna, 2013. AT
	10	+Among the many challenges the world is facing in the early twenty-first century, climate change remains one of the major problems. The possibility of global climate change resulting from increasing anthropogenic emissions of GHGs has been a major concern in recent decades. A principal source of GHGs, and particularly of carbon dioxide (CO2), is the fossil fuels burned by the energy sector. Energy demand is expected to increase dramatically in the twenty-first century, especially in developing countries, where population growth is fastest and where, even today, some 1.6 billion people have no access to modern energy services. Without significant efforts to limit future GHG emissions, especially from the energy supply sector, the expected global increase in energy production and use could well trigger “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”, to use the language of Article 2 of the UNFCCC.
	11	+
	12	+Nuclear power will be replaced by coal construction and natural gas.
	13	+Biello 2013, David. “How Nuclear Power Can Stop Global Warming,” December 12, 2013.http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-nuclear-power-can-stop-global-warming/. SD
	14	+As long as countries like China or the U.S. employ big grids to deliver electricity, there will be a need for generation from nuclear, coal or gas, the kinds of electricity generation that can be available at all times. A rush to phase out nuclear power privileges natural gas—as is planned under Germany's innovative effort, dubbed the Energiewende (energy transition), to increase solar, wind and other renewable power while also eliminating the country's 17 reactors. In fact, Germany hopes to develop technology to store excess electricity from renewable resources as gas to be burned later, a scheme known as “power to gas,” according to economist and former German politician Rainer Baake, now director of an energy transition think tank Agora Energiewende. Even worse, a nuclear stall can lead to the construction of more coal-fired power plants, as happened in the U.S. after the end of the nuclear power plant construction era in the 1980s.∂
	15	+
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	17	+Unabated climate change will harm human health and wellbeing in myriad ways.
	18	+IAEA 2013 – International Atomic Energy Agency, “Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2013,” Vienna, 2013. AT
	19	+The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that the biophysical changes resulting from a global warming of more than 3°C will trigger increasingly negative impacts in all climate sensitive sectors in all regions of the world 1. In mid-latitude and semi-arid low latitude regions, decreasing water availability and increasing drought will expose hundreds of millions of people to increased water stress. In agriculture, cereal productivity is expected to decrease in low latitude regions and to be only partly compensated for by increased productivity in mid-latitude and high latitude regions. Natural ecosystems will also be affected negatively: up to 30 of species will be at a growing risk of extinction in terrestrial areas, and increased coral bleaching in the oceans is forecast. In coastal areas, damage from floods and storms will increase. Human health will also be affected, especially in less developed countries, by the increasing burden from malnutrition and from diarrhoeal, cardiorespiratory and infectious diseases. Increased morbidity and mortality are foreseen from heatwaves, floods and droughts.
	20	+
	21	+Impact
	22	+Nuclear power is the only way to achieve substantial emissions cuts quickly enough to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.
	23	+IAEA 2013 – International Atomic Energy Agency, “Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2013,” Vienna, 2013. AT
	24	+The Copenhagen Accord, the outcome of the Fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-15) to the UNFCCC held in 2009, recognizes “the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius” 2, in order to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This means that “deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science” 3 and international cooperation is needed for peaking global and national GHG emissions “as soon as possible”. ∂ Recent experiments with a coupled climate carbon cycle model found that anthropogenic CO2 emissions to date add up to about 50 of the total amount of cumulative emissions permissible for keeping global mean temperature increase below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level 4, 5. Accordingly, emissions of CO2 (and other GHGs) will need to decrease significantly. Given the constraint for cumulative CO2 emissions and assuming a median climate sensitivity of 3°C, even an immediate start of reducing CO2 emissions to eventually reach 10 of their current level would not prevent a warming of more than 2°C by the end of this millennium. Postponing the start of emission mitigation by 20 years and cutting emissions at the rate of 3 per year thereafter would result in reaching the 2°C limit by 2100 6. This implies that immediately available technologies with large mitigation potential, such as nuclear power, will be required to avoid more than 2°C warming over the long term.∂ An international initiative of the scientific community involved in climate change research resulted in new scenarios for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation and has produced a set of so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for exploring the near and long term climate change implications of different emissions pathways of all GHGs 7. The RCPs indicate radiative forcing1 values for the year 2100 in the range 2.6–8.5 W/m2. The low end of this range is associated with limiting the global mean temperature increase to less than 2°C 8.∂ Figure 1 shows the baseline (without climate policy) and the RCP2.6 mitigation pathways for all GHGs included in the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC and for energy and industry related CO2 emissions alone. The chart indicates an enormous mitigation challenge: total GHG emissions will need to start decreasing at a fast rate in less than a decade while energy and industry related CO2 emissions will need to become negative beyond 2070. The latter will require a fast decarbonization of the energy system by adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to a large fraction of fossil fuel and bioenergy use, and drastically increasing the contribution of nuclear energy 8 to the global energy mix.
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	26	+(__) Global Warming causes extinction, we need to act now: McCoy 14
	27	+Mccoy, David Et. Al. MD, Centre for International Health and Development, University College London, “Climate Change and Human Survival,” BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL v. 348, 4—2—14, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g2510
	28	+
	29	+The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just published its report on the impacts of global warming. Building on its recent update of the physical science of global warming 1, the IPCC’s new report should leave the world in no doubt about the scale and immediacy of the threat to human survival, health, and well-being. The IPCC has already concluded that it is “virtually certain that human influence has warmed the global climate system” and that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010” is anthropogenic 1. Its new report outlines the future threats of further global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water; extreme weather events; rise in sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence. Leaked drafts talk of hundreds of millions displaced in a little over 80 years. This month, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) added its voice: “the well being of people of all nations is at risk.” 2 Such comments reaffirm the conclusions of the Lancet/UCL Commission: that climate change is “the greatest threat to human health of the 21st century.” 3 The changes seen so far—massive arctic ice loss and extreme weather events, for example—have resulted from an estimated average temperature rise of 0.89°C since 1901. Further changes will depend on how much we continue to heat the planet. The release of just another 275 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would probably commit us to a temperature rise of at least 2°C—an amount that could be emitted in less than eight years. 4 “Business as usual” will increase carbon dioxide concentrations from the current level of 400 parts per million (ppm), which is a 40 increase from 280 ppm 150 years ago, to 936 ppm by 2100, with a 50:50 chance that this will deliver global mean temperature rises of more than 4°C. It is now widely understood that such a rise is “incompatible with an organised global community.” 5. The IPCC warns of “tipping points” in the Earth’s system, which, if crossed, could lead to a catastrophic collapse of interlinked human and natural systems. The AAAS concludes that there is now a “real chance of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts on people around the globe.” 2 And this week a report from the World Meteorological Office (WMO) confirmed that extreme weather events are accelerating. WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud said, “There is no standstill in global warming . . . The laws of physics are non-negotiable.” 6
	30	+
	31	+(__) The poor are especially vulnerable to ecological disruption. Barbier 2010 :
	32	+Edward Barbier Prof of Economics, U. of Wyoming, “Environmental Sustainability and Poverty Eradication in Developing Countries,” Getting Development Right: Structural Transformation, Inclusion, and Sustainability in the Post-Crisis Era. Ed. Eva Paus. New York: Palgrave Macmillan (2013), pp. 173-194. AT
	33	+As noted above, the livelihoods of one-quarter of the population in developing countreis- almost 1.3 billion – are particularly vulnerable to ecological disruption, and they account for many of the world’s extreme poor who live on less than US$2 per day (see also box 1.2). These populations live in regions with no access to irrigation systems, farm poor soils or land with steep slopes, and inhabit fragile forest systems. By 2015, despite a decline in the share of the world population living in extreme poverty, there are still likely to be nearly 3 billion people living on less than US$2 a day. As indicated in box 3.1, many low- and middle-income economies fall into a persistent pattern of resource use characterized by chronic resource dependency, the concentration of large segments of the population in fragile environments, and rural poverty.
	34	+
	35	+(__)Becaue indigenous peoples have a close relationship with nature, as climate change worsens, their understanding of nature becomes invalid. Baird 2008 :
	36	+Rachel Baird, Journalist and Climate Change Researcher for Christian Aid 'The Impact of Climate Change on Minorities and Indigenous Peoples' Minority Rights Group International, April 2008.
	37	+Indigenous peoples tend to live close to nature, in relatively natural environments, rather than in cities, growing and making much of the food and other products that they need to survive. This gives them an extraordinarily intimate knowledge of local weather and plant and animal life. Traditional wisdom on matters such as when to plant crops or where to hunt for food has been accumulated over many generations, but now that the climate is shifting, some of those understandings are proving to be no longer valid. Climate change, and the rapidly increasing amount of land being converted into plantations of biofuel crops, threatens the very existence of some cultures.

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-09-10 22:13:08.646

Judge

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	1	+Kariman Dadah

Opponent

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	1	+North Hollywood JS

ParentRound

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	1	+2

Round

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	1	+3

Team

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	1	+Marlborough Coates Neg

Title

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	1	+Climate Change DA

Tournament

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	1	+Loyola