Changes for page Loyola Beckman Aff

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1 +ryanbeckman@lhsla.org
2 +See Douglas Wickham's wiki
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1 +Trump needs PC to re-negotiate NAFTA
2 +Anderson 1/31 (Scott, writer for Forbes, “Will The Trump Policy Hype Match The Reality?”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottanderson/2017/01/31/will-the-trump-policy-hype-match-the-reality/#77a0c2e3635c)
3 +Let’s just focus in on what’s at stake as the U.S. government mulls over a 20 tax on Mexican imports, a renegotiation of NAFTA terms, and a likely trade war that these policies could trigger. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, total trade with Mexico was $583.6 billion in 2015 (the latest full year of available data). Mexico was our second-largest goods export market in 2015 and the third-largest supplier of goods imported to the United States. Despite populist notions, U.S. exports to Mexico have grown strongly under NAFTA. U.S. goods exports to Mexico have risen 97 over the past 10 years, and are up 468 from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). In fact, U.S. imports from Mexico have grown at a slower pace, 73 since 2005, than U.S exports. The U.S. exported $42 billion in machinery, $41 billion in electrical machinery, $22 billion in vehicles, $19 billion in mineral fuels, and $17 billion in plastics in 2015, just to name a few of the U.S. industries that would be negatively impacted by a trade war with Mexico. Mexico is also the U.S.’s third-largest agriculture export market, buying substantial quantities of U.S. corn, soybeans, dairy, pork, and beef products. The Department of Commerce estimates that U.S. exports to Mexico supported an estimated 1.1 million U.S. jobs in 2014. The U.S. top imports from Mexico are primarily vehicles and machinery. The U.S. imported $74 billion in vehicles, $63 billion in electrical machinery, $49 billion in machinery, $14 billion in mineral fuels, and $12 billion in optical and medical instruments from Mexico in 2015. Those imports help keep U.S. prices down and also help more Mexicans buy our exports. It is likely that a 20 tariff on Mexican imports would not only reduce imports from Mexico, it would also lead to higher prices in the United States and fewer exports to Mexico. Those negative impacts could be even greater if Mexico retaliated with its own tariffs. Priorities that may bring success This is a lose-lose trade policy that will likely make both countries worse off and could do even more economic damage than advertised. It will send a message to the rest of the world that the U.S. is abdicating its leadership role in the global economy and is shying away from competition and innovation. China is only too eager to take the U.S.’s place on the global economic stage. Policies like these will only hasten the shift. A new administration only has so much political capital to spend on policy initiatives when it comes to Washington. It’s a pity it is currently being squandered on policies that will have mixed economic benefits at best, and could do real economic damage at worst. Refocusing on the tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation needs to be a top priority if the new Administration is to have any real chance of sustaining the optimism and financial market moves we have seen since November. Moreover, hitting the Trump Administration’s ambitious 4.0 GDP growth targets for the United States, even for a limited time, appears nearly unreachable. Add in protectionist trade policies and immigration limitations, and U.S. won’t get there. If a film has a bad opening weekend, it rarely recovers. For Trump’s economic policies the promotional hype is ending, the box office is open, and the hard reality of lifting U.S. economic growth is underway. Economists will be there to tally the box office receipts.
4 +
5 +Trump’s recent threats to Berkeley means he will be credited for causing the aff, independent of their justifications
6 +Brown and Mangan 2/3
7 +Brown, Sarah, and Katherine Mangan. "Trump Can't Cut Off Berkeley's Funds by Himself. His Threat Still Raised Alarm." The Chronicle of Higher Education. N.p., 03 Feb. 2017. Web. 03 Feb. 2017. http://www.chronicle.com/article/Trump-Can-t-Cut-Off/239100?cid=trend_right. BS
8 +Back in October, when President Trump vowed to "end" political correctness on college campuses, it was unclear how the then-presidential candidate planned to go about doing that.¶ On Thursday, he dropped a hint: He threatened to cut off federal funding to the University of California at Berkeley after violent protests there prompted campus leaders to call off a talk by a far-right provocateur.¶ Milo Yiannopoulos is a Breitbart News editor and Trump supporter who has for months traveled to campuses to give talks that often draw protests and have sometimes resulted in violence. He was once permanently banned from Twitter for his role in a harassment campaign against the actress Leslie Jones, and he has drawn heavy fire for his insulting comments about feminists, Black Lives Matters protesters, Islam, and other topics he considers part of leftist ideology.¶ Mr. Yiannopoulos was scheduled to speak on Berkeley’s campus late Wednesday, as part of his "Dangerous Faggot" tour, and more than 1,500 students gathered outside the venue to peacefully protest. Then about 100 additional protesters — mostly nonstudents, Berkeley officials said — joined the fray and hurled smoke bombs, broke windows, and started fires. The violence forced the campus police to put Berkeley on lockdown and led university leaders to cancel the event.¶ The following morning, a political commentator suggested on Fox and Friends First that President Trump should take away Berkeley’s federal funding. Shortly thereafter, Mr. Trump decided to weigh in.¶ Not surprisingly, Mr. Yiannopoulos liked that idea. On Facebook Thursday, he linked to a Breitbart article about the federal money Berkeley receives, adding, "Cut the whole lot, Donald J. Trump." Others were quick to condemn the president’s threat. U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee, a California Democrat whose district includes the Berkeley campus, tweeted back: "President Trump doesn’t have a license to blackmail universities. He’s the president, not a dictator, and his empty threats are an abuse of power."¶ Later, in a statement, Ms. Lee said Mr. Yiannopoulos "has made a career of inflaming racist, sexist and nativist sentiments." Meanwhile, she wrote, "Berkeley has a proud history of dissent and students were fully within their rights to protest peacefully."¶ Could Mr. Trump take away a university’s federal funding for what he sees as a violation of the First Amendment? Not on his own, and not entirely, some scholars say, though there are ways he could advocate for cutting some of it.¶ Regardless, Mr. Trump’s singling out of Berkeley is worth paying attention to, they say, because it serves as a message to other campus officials that they may soon be put in the position of responding to the president’s social-media whims.¶ How Berkeley Prepared¶ Berkeley’s chancellor, Nicholas B. Dirks, went to great lengths last week to explain why the university would not give in to demands to cancel Mr. Yiannopoulos’s appearance. The First Amendment, the chancellor wrote, does not allow the university to censor or prohibit such events.¶ "In our view, Mr. Yiannopoulos is a troll and provocateur who uses odious behavior in part to ‘entertain,’ but also to deflect any serious engagement with ideas," Mr. Dirks wrote.¶ But, he added, "we are defending the right to free expression at an historic moment for our nation, when this right is once again of paramount importance." Mr. Dirks went on to warn that the university "will not stand idly by" if anyone tries to violate university policies by disrupting the talk.¶ Still, the furor over the protests delighted many activists who have been arguing for years that pressure to be politically correct on campuses has stifled those with conservative views.¶ Among them were members of the "alt-right" movement, a loosely affiliated group characterized by its white nationalist, sexist, and anti-Semitic views.¶ The group clearly felt vindicated by the president’s assertion that Berkeley doesn’t allow free speech, which came on the heels of the online discussion group Reddit banning an alt-right community for publishing personally identifiable information about people it is criticizing. On Thursday, Mr. Dirks released a statement doubling down on his earlier comments about the campus’s commitment to free speech. The violence, he said, was perpetrated by "more than 100 armed individuals clad all in black who utilized paramilitary tactics to engage in violent, destructive behavior" designed to shut the event down.¶ "We deeply regret that the violence unleashed by this group undermined the First Amendment rights of the speaker as well as those who came to lawfully assemble and protest his presence."¶ The university had anticipated a large crowd of protesters at Mr. Yiannopoulos’s talk on Wednesday night and had brought in dozens of police officers from across the university system to help maintain order. But "we could not plan for the unprecedented," Mr. Dirks wrote. The event was called off only after the campus police concluded that the speaker had to be evacuated for his own safety, he added. Mr. Trump’s threat was also criticized by a group that is known for condemning campuses that it sees as violating free speech rights. The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, known as FIRE, released a statement Thursday objecting to "both violence and attempts to silence protected expression."¶ The group said, however, that it had seen no evidence that Berkeley, as an institution, had made any effort to silence Mr. Yiannopoulos, and that the university had, in fact, resisted calls to cancel his visit until the situation got out of hand.¶ FIRE added a caution that seemed to be directed at President Trump’s threat to strip funding from Berkeley. "To punish an educational institution for the criminal behavior of those not under its control and in contravention of its policies, whether through the loss of federal funds or through any other means, would be deeply inappropriate and most likely unlawful," its statement said.¶ Withholding Federal Funds¶ The idea of punishing colleges for free-speech controversies was originally Ben Carson’s idea, said Jonathan Zimmerman, a professor of the history of education at the University of Pennsylvania. Mr. Carson, a neurosurgeon and former Republican presidential candidate, said in October 2015 that he would have the U.S. Department of Education "monitor our institutions of higher education for extreme political bias and deny federal funding if it exists."¶ Terry W. Hartle, a senior vice president at the American Council on Education, took the question mark on the end of Mr. Trump’s tweet literally. The president might have been asking, Could I withhold federal funds from Berkeley? Mr. Hartle said. Yes, the federal government has the authority to withhold federal funds like financial aid from colleges that engage in certain activities, Mr. Hartle said. And it has the authority to attach conditions to the money it gives out. The Solomon Amendment, for instance, requires colleges to admit ROTC or military recruiters to their campus or risk losing money.¶ But Congress would have to act to give the government the ability to take away federal funds for controversies involving the First Amendment, Mr. Hartle said.¶ The government also couldn’t pull funding from Berkeley by retroactively saying the institution’s federal money is contingent on protecting free speech, said Alexander (Sasha) Volokh, an associate professor of law at Emory University.¶ "If the funding comes explicitly with strings attached, which is that you must adequately protect free speech on your campus if you want these funds, and if the university takes these funds knowing the condition, that’s one thing," he said.¶ The U.S. Supreme Court has weighed in several times on strings attached to federal funding, Mr. Volokh said, and has determined that such conditions must be clearly stated in advance and related to the matter being funded.¶ For instance, he said, the court said it was OK for the government to tie federal highway funds to a requirement for states to adopt a drinking age of 21, because highway safety could be affected by the drinking age. But the National Institutes of Health probably couldn’t attach a requirement for free-speech protection to a grant for researching Ebola, he said.¶ Moving forward, Mr. Trump could tell federal research agencies that some of their contracts with colleges and researchers should now include stipulations about free speech, Mr. Volokh said. "I have the feeling that Trump had something much blunter in mind," he said.¶ ‘Uncharted Territory’¶ Mr. Trump’s social-media attack on Berkeley raises another question for colleges: how to respond to such tweets. "This is uncharted territory for all organizations," not just colleges, Mr. Hartle said, citing Mr. Trump’s criticism of Boeing for what he considered to be an overpriced contract for constructing two Air Force One planes that future presidents will use. (Boeing subsequently promised to keep the cost below $4 billion.) It might not be wise to pick a fight with someone who has millions of Twitter followers, Mr. Hartle said, but "you can’t just ignore it if the president of the United States tweets about you."¶ Berkeley is in a particularly difficult situation, Mr. Hartle said, because in his view the university did everything right when Mr. Yiannopoulos came to the campus. "Berkeley tried to allow him to speak and to allow protesters to protest," he said. "Everything was fine until the protests turned violent."¶ One challenge for colleges, he said, will probably involve dealing with people, particularly nonstudents, who want to disrupt speakers and who "now see resorting to violence as simply another tactic in an effort to accomplish their purpose."¶ If Mr. Trump could were to push Congress to pass a law giving him the authority to take away federal funds from colleges for free-speech controversies, Mr. Hartle said, "they should carve out some sort of exception when it involved violence or a police request." While the president might not make such legislation a priority, college officials shouldn’t dismiss his criticism of Berkeley, said Mr. Zimmerman, of Penn. "It’s ridiculous and frightening for the president to be threatening to withhold money based on his perception of what’s happening with free speech on campus," he said. On the other hand, he said, "Trump is not wrong when he says a lot of people on these campuses want to squelch free speech."¶ When institutions disinvite speakers or try to quash a right-wing group’s event or demonstration, Mr. Zimmerman said, "they’re playing right into Trump’s hands."¶ Given the violence, Mr. Zimmerman doesn’t begrudge Berkeley’s administration for canceling the speech. But he described as problematic a letter signed by dozens of professors saying that Mr. Yiannopoulos shouldn’t be allowed to speak on campus.¶ Ultimately, Mr. Volokh is more concerned about the way in which Mr. Trump made his point, versus the content of the tweet. "It wasn’t enough for him to say that free speech is important," Mr. Volokh said. "He had to do it in a way that was threatening."
9 +That makes Trump look tough-winners win means it’s a boost to his PC
10 +Green 10 – professor of political science at Hofstra University
11 +David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html
12 +Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and reciprocal relationship between presidential boldness and achievement. In the same way that nothing breeds success like success, nothing sets the president up for achieving his or her next goal better than succeeding dramatically on the last go around. This is absolutely a matter of perception, and you can see it best in the way that Congress and especially the Washington press corps fawn over bold and intimidating presidents like Reagan and George W. Bush. The political teams surrounding these presidents understood the psychology of power all too well. They knew that by simultaneously creating a steamroller effect and feigning a clubby atmosphere for Congress and the press, they could leave such hapless hangers-on with only one remaining way to pretend to preserve their dignities. By jumping on board the freight train, they could be given the illusion of being next to power, of being part of the winning team. And so, with virtually the sole exception of the now retired Helen Thomas, this is precisely what they did.
13 +
14 +Scrapping NAFTA causes US to be more reliant on Saudi oil exports
15 +Eric Martin 2015 “Trump Killing Nafta Could Mean Big Unintended Consequences for the U.S.” Eric is an analyst for Bloomberg on trade deals and the domestic economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-01/trump-killing-nafta-could-mean-big-unintended-consequences-for-the-u-s-
16 +Canada and Mexico accounted for about half of U.S. oil imports in 2014, more than all the nations in OPEC combined and 84 percent of the oil the U.S. bought from outside the cartel. While a supply glut has driven oil prices to near a six-year low, there's no guarantee things will stay that way. Ending Nafta could make the U.S. more reliant on imports from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and other OPEC members when global demand rebounds down the road. Nafta gives the U.S. preferential access to oil, limiting the scenarios in which Canada can restrict energy exports to the U.S. If the U.S. didn’t import oil from its Nafta partners, it could do so at higher cost from other countries, some of which aren’t as friendly to the U.S. as Mexico or Canada.
17 +Saudi Arabia needs the dirty oil money to sustain its proxy war in Yemen
18 +Mehmood Hussain 2016 “Saudi Intervention in Yemen and its impact on Saudi’s economy” Mehmood Hussain is PhD Fellow in International Relations at School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), Jilin University, China. He also holds a Master’s degree in Political Science from University of Gujrat, Pakistan. http://foreignpolicynews.org/2016/12/11/saudi-intervention-yemen-impact-saudis-economy/
19 +As for as war costs increased in Yemen, Riyadh started to sale its assets in European markets. An estimate developed by Reuters that Saudi Arabia is spending $175 million per month for bombings in Yemen and additional $500 million for ground incursions. These unexpected expenditures forced Riyadh to sell off $1.2 billion of its $9.2 billion holdings in European equities.7 Besides Riyadh denounced budget for 2016 with a deficit of SR 326 billion ($87 billion). In budget it was predicted that expenditures will be 840 billion SR ($224 billion) while revenue will be at SR 513 billion ($137 billion).8 While Saudi government allocated SR 213 billion ($56.8 billion) only for military and security spending which comprise more than 25 share of total budget. It is important to note here that Saudi defense budget had been rising by 19 since the Arab up springs of 2011. Beyond budget deficit, Yemen war also have unprecedented impacts on Saudi foreign reserves and only during 2015 Saudi foreign reserves depleted from $732 billion to $623 billion in less than 12 months.9 Below picture clearly indicate the grave consequences of Saudi intervention in Yemen over foreign reserves.
20 +Continued war in Yemen spills over to cascading ME war
21 +Marc Moussalli 2015 Marc Moussalli works with institutional investors in Europe and the Middle East to advise on global political and macroeconomic risks. “Not just a proxy war: Yemen’s strategic importance” http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/04/not-just-a-proxy-war-yemens-strategic-importance/
22 +Furthermore, Yemen’s inherent instability and its porous borders pose a direct threat to its neighbors Saudi Arabia and Oman. In a worst case scenario, Yemen’s situation could lead to disruptive spill over-effects in the whole Golf region. Yemen’s large population of over 26 million people is very poor (according to the UN, GDP per capita in 2012 was not even 1,400 USD). Sixty three percent of its people are under the age of 24. In addition, Yemen’s society is deeply influenced by ancient tribal loyalties. It is also divided between Sunni (65) and Shia (35) factions. Its remote mountains and desert plains have long been a safe haven for terrorists, especially al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which controls much of the Hadramawt province. Yemen’s lawlessness could also be exploited by other Islamist extremists such as Islamic State (IS). IS has already claimed responsibility for the bombing of two Houthi mosques in Sana’a which resulted in more than 140 casualties. Whether this will prove as the ‘Middle East’s Franz Ferdinand Moment’ is for future historians to decide. The attacks nevertheless provided one possible pretext for the intensifying of the rebellion and the subsequent airstrikes. Without doubt, the situation in Yemen is highly complex and dangerously combustible, and Saudi-led airstrikes are not likely to produce a settlement. As recent history throughout the region has shown, military interventions rarely ever produce peaceful resolutions to entrenched conflicts, especially if religious undercurrents are involved. The international community has an interest to promote peaceful and diplomatic solutions which involve all relevant parties. This is especially true for Yemen. Otherwise, regional instability will continue to adversely affect investment and business sentiment, or worse, lead to full-blown armed conflict between the region’s major powers.
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