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  • Caselist.RoundClass[1]
  • Caselist.CitesClass[1]

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Caselist.RoundClass[1]

EntryDate

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1		-2016-09-17 15:44:48.646
	1	+2016-09-17 15:44:48.0

Caselist.CitesClass[1]

Cites

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	1	+=Complexity Meltdowns 1AC=
	2	+
	3	+
	4	+==Framing==
	5	+
	6	+
	7	+====The judge should rupture risk communication and accept complexity- means we have to consider only what we know and is given to us, not pure future prognosis by a consensus of "experts"====
	8	+,,William J.,, Kinsella, ,,Assoc Prof Communication at NC State University,,,2010
	9	+,,~~"Risk communication, phenomenology, and the limits of representation",,Catalan Journal of Communication and Cultural Studies,,2 (2) pp. 267–276~~,,
	10	+ Despite movements towards more dialogic and rhetorical models, the field of risk communication
	11	+AND
	12	+and for transmitting facts rather than generating insight’ (Deetz 1973: 51).
	13	+
	14	+
	15	+====Linear modeling and regression goes against existence- prior question====
	16	+Puente, professor of Land, Air and Water Resources – University of California ‘6
	17	+(Carlos E, "Yet more lessons from complexity - Unity: The key of peace," E:CO Issue Vol. 8 No. 4, p. 104-111
	18	+Although our natural bliss in "nailing" yet another power-law, and
	19	+AND
	20	+1997; Buchanan, 2001; Sornette, 2004; Malamud, 2004).
	21	+
	22	+
	23	+====Predictions fail – nuclear power experts are part of a system of experts whose predictions are doomed to fail because of complexity====
	24	+Tetlock and Gardner 11 ,,Philip Tetlock is a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, AND Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear, received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award, M.A. History from York, "OVERCOMING OUR AVERSION TO ACKNOWLEDGING OUR IGNORANCE" July 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance/,,
	25	+Each December, The Economist forecasts the coming year in a special issue called The
	26	+AND
	27	+mindless competition: simple extrapolation algorithms that automatically predicted more of the same.
	28	+
	29	+
	30	+====This framework is a prerequisite to influencing the policy implementation process—Rejecting their simplistic linear chain as ‘real evidence’ is the first step to sustainability ====
	31	+Gill Callaghan 2008 ~~Research Fellow at Durham University School Applied Social Sciences, "Evaluation and Negotiated Order : Developing the Application of Complexity Theory" Evaluation Vol 14(4): 399–411~~
	32	+ This article argues that complexity theory has the potential to bring important insights in
	33	+AND
	34	+to handle agency. Negotiated order can provide such a complexity consistent account.
	35	+
	36	+
	37	+====Thus the standard is assessment of data and empirical realities====
	38	+To win under my FW, the negative must present empirical analysis of the status quo and the past that proves that nuclear power is beneficial or they can prove that the affirmative’s data leads to a bad conclusion.
	39	+Instead of traditional probability times magnitude, prefer probability times magnitude filtered through data sets.
	40	+
	41	+
	42	+==Contention 1: Meltdowns will Happen==
	43	+
	44	+
	45	+===A: Statistical Analysis===
	46	+
	47	+
	48	+====The probability of a core meltdown is 69.8 in the next 10 years. In the US for next 25 years, it’s 50.4====
	49	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910,,
	50	+Thus the best estimate is 1 in 3704 reactor years. Having established this,
	51	+AND
	52	+accident within the next 25 years with a probability of 50.4.
	53	+
	54	+
	55	+====Not enough nuclear reactors to solve warming, and if they did they would melt down. ====
	56	+,,Arjun,, Makhijani 10, ,,Ph.D. "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy" Institute for Energy and Environmental Research November 5, 2010 ,,
	57	+If nuclear power is used as a principal element of future electricity generation worldwide,
	58	+AND
	59	+reactors were increased by a factor of ten compared to the present.31
	60	+
	61	+
	62	+====Prefer our Statistical Analysis- ====
	63	+
	64	+
	65	+====1) includes every accident on record that had to do with regulation or preparedness====
	66	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	67	+We therefore collected our data from two publicly available lists of nuclear accidents, one
	68	+AND
	69	+This leaves four accidents with core melts in civil reactors for power generation.
	70	+
	71	+
	72	+====2) Organizations like the IAEA engage in data suppression which is a reason to reject their safety calculations and assumptions====
	73	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	74	+In the literature there are slightly different defini- tions of a minor, major
	75	+AND
	76	+, "There is no publicly available list of events rated using INES."
	77	+
	78	+
	79	+====3) Assumes realities like tech differences and possible learning curves, and thus the spread of data is huge====
	80	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	81	+Using simple statistics, the probability of a core-melt accident within 1 year
	82	+AND
	83	+1 in 14,300 reactor years and 1 in 1450 reactor years.
	84	+
	85	+
	86	+====4) Past studies use the Probabilistic Risk Assessment method, which is incorrect and biased. General academia agrees with our method which is standard Risk Assessment. ====
	87	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	88	+In the past, several studies have investigated the prob- ability of a core
	89	+AND
	90	+there was agreement on the substantive con- clusions of Islam and Lindgren.
	91	+
	92	+
	93	+====Learning curve is empirically denied- no reduction in accidents over time despite improvements in technology. Any flaws is because of the IAEA data suppression====
	94	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	95	+We also wanted to see whether accidents become less frequent with more operational experience.
	96	+AND
	97	+is no indication that some reactors are less prone to failure than others.
	98	+
	99	+
	100	+===B: Construction Issues===
	101	+
	102	+
	103	+====Companies don’t even follow the standards —- and regulations are far from sufficient. – Text of the regulations prove====
	104	+Edwin **Lyman**, 20**08**, ,,Senior Scientist in the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, president of the Nuclear Control Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based organization focused on nuclear proliferation, postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University’s Center for Energy and Environmental Studies 1992-95 (now the Science and Global Security Program), doctorate degree in physics from Cornell University in 1992, "Can nuclear plants be safer?" http://www.psr.org/nuclear-bailout/resources/can-nuclear-plants-be-safer.pdf - Bulletin of Atomic Scientists September/October 2008 – Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 34-37),,
	105	+But the NRC and the nuclear industry are squandering the opportunity to lock in major
	106	+AND
	107	+. pressurized water reactors, excluding the much weaker ice-condenser plants.
	108	+
	109	+
	110	+====Europe study proves Companies make Nuclear zero sum with Renewables- means more emissions. ====
	111	+Lawrence Et Al 16 ,,Andrew Lawrence, International Relations, Vienna School of International Studies Benjamin Sovacool, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Andrew Stirling, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex "Nuclear energy and path dependence in Europe’s ‘Energy union’: coherence or continued divergence?" Published online: 01 Jul 2016 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2016.1179616,,
	112	+Several implications are evident from Table 2. Europe’s three patterns of active nuclear commitment
	113	+AND
	114	+99(394), 116–131.) – is therefore in order.
	115	+
	116	+
	117	+====Don’t trust studies by international or country agencies- political incentives and confirmation bias. ====
	118	+Lawrence Et Al 16 ,,Andrew Lawrence, International Relations, Vienna School of International Studies Benjamin Sovacool, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Andrew Stirling, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex "Nuclear energy and path dependence in Europe’s ‘Energy union’: coherence or continued divergence?" Published online: 01 Jul 2016 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2016.1179616,,
	119	+The second question concerns the wider strategic position of nuclear energy in relation to stated
	120	+AND
	121	+10.1016/j.erss.2014.02.009).
	122	+
	123	+
	124	+==Contention 2: Meltdowns are Bad==
	125	+
	126	+
	127	+====Reactors and wastes are sited near minority groups, which means they get killed first and experience increased cancer rates. ====
	128	+Alldred And Shrader-Frechette 9 ,,Mary Alldred and Kristin Shrader-Frechette Doctoral student Alldred is in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, in Stony Brook, New York. Dr. Shrader-Frechette is O’Neill Fam- ily Endowed Professor, Department of Biological Sciences and Department of Philosophy, and Director of the Center for Envi- ronmental Justice and Children’s Health, all at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana. "Environmental Injustice in Siting Nuclear Plants" ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Volume 2, Number 2, 2009 © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI: 10.1089/env.2008.0544,,
	129	+Even when reactors operate normally, statistically sig- nificant increases in infant and fetal
	130	+AND
	131	+(p 0.001), at least in the southeastern United States.
	132	+
	133	+
	134	+====Contamination spreads rapidly – no one is safe ====
	135	+**Max - Planck- Gesselschaft 12** –The Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science is a formally independent non-governmental and non-profit association of German research institute (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Major Reactor, 5-22-2012, "Severe nuclear reactor accidents likely every 10 to 20 years, European study suggests," ScienceDaily, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120522134942.htm) LADI
	136	+25 percent of the radioactive particles are transported further than 2,000 kilometres Subsequently
	137	+AND
	138	+out of nuclear energy should also be considered ," adds the atmospheric chemist.
	139	+
	140	+
	141	+==Underview==
	142	+PIC’s are a voting issue against whole res affs.
	143	+A) Advocacy Skills – PICs Moot Aff Ground By Destroying Our Ability to Leverage 1AC Offense and Allows Them to Moot 6 Minutes of Speech Time – We are Unable to Generate Our Best Offense and Rigorously Analyze Positions which is the Only Portable Skill From Debate.
	144	+B) Infinitely unpredictable and regressive- justifies exclude Pu 239, plan minus 1 penny. Worse against whole res since you can spec a country, mechanism, type, etc.
	145	+Deploy net benefit as DA solves your offense
	146	+
	147	+
	148	+====The state is key – engaging multiple sites of resistance and interim reforms is necessary to foster an ethos critical to overcome right-wing oppression====
	149	+Connolly ’13 ~~William, Professor of Political Theory at Johns Hopkins University, The Fragility of Things, pp. 36-42~~
	150	+A philosophy attending to the acceleration, expansion, irrationalities, interdependencies, and fragilities
	151	+AND
	152	+too urgent and too many people on the ground are suffering too much now
	153	+
	154	+
	155	+====Probability times magnitude is bankrupt- view low probability as no probability. ====
	156	+Kessler ‘8 ~~Oliver Kessler, Sociology at University of Bielefeld, "From Insecurity to Uncertainty: Risk and the Paradox of Security Politics" Alternatives 33 (2008), 211-232~~
	157	+The problem of the second method is that it is very difficult
	158	+to "
	159	+AND
	160	+prevail than in situations where security problems can be assessed with relative certainty.

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-09-17 15:44:50.409

Judge

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	1	+asdf

Opponent

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	1	+Harvard Westlake

ParentRound

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	1	+1

Round

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	1	+6

Team

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	1	+Kinkaid Yang Aff

Title

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	1	+SEPT OCT Meltdowns 2

Tournament

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	1	+Greenhill RR