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EntryDate

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1		-2016-09-15 18:50:20.733
	1	+2016-09-15 18:50:20.0

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Cites

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	1	+=Meltdowns 1AC=
	2	+
	3	+
	4	+==Framing==
	5	+
	6	+
	7	+====Structural violence is based in moral exclusion, it pervades our cognitive processes and encourages us to ignore differences in identity. ====
	8	+**Winter and Leighton 99** ~~Deborah DuNann Winter and Dana C. Leighton. Winter~|~~Psychologist that specializes in Social Psych, Counseling Psych, Historical and Contemporary Issues, Peace Psychology. Leighton: PhD graduate student in the Psychology Department at the University of Arkansas. Knowledgable in the fields of social psychology, peace psychology, and justice and intergroup responses to transgressions of justice~~ "Peace, conflict, and violence: Peace psychology in the 21st century." Pg 4-5~~
	9	+She argues that our normal perceptual cognitive processes divide people into in-groups and
	10	+AND
	11	+local cultures, will be our most surefooted path to building lasting peace.
	12	+
	13	+
	14	+====Debate should surround material consequences—ideal theories ignore the concrete nature of the world and legitimize oppression.====
	15	+**Curry 14** ~~Dr. Tommy J; "The Cost of a Thing: A Kingian Reformulation of a Living Wage Argument in the 21st Century", Victory Briefs, 2014~~
	16	+Despite the pronouncement of debate as an activity and intellectual exercise pointing to the real
	17	+AND
	18	+economic structures which necessitate tangible policies and reorienting changes in our value orientations.
	19	+
	20	+
	21	+==Contention 1: Meltdowns will Happen==
	22	+
	23	+
	24	+===A: Statistical Analysis (2:15)===
	25	+
	26	+
	27	+====Nuclear energy risks contaminating the surrounding water tables====
	28	+Caldicott, ‘6
	29	+~~Helen, Founder, President — Nuclear Policy Research Institute, "Nuclear Power is not the answer," p. 58-9~~
	30	+Radioactive corrosion or activation products that are not the result of uranium fission are also
	31	+AND
	32	+some just leaks out unplanned. Many other emissions are simply not monitored.
	33	+
	34	+
	35	+====The probability of a core meltdown is 69.8 in the next 10 years. In the US for next 25 years, it’s 50.4====
	36	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910,,
	37	+Thus the best estimate is 1 in 3704 reactor years. Having established this,
	38	+AND
	39	+accident within the next 25 years with a probability of 50.4.
	40	+
	41	+
	42	+====Not enough nuclear reactors to solve warming, and if they did they would melt down. ====
	43	+,,Arjun,, Makhijani 10, ,,Ph.D. "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy" Institute for Energy and Environmental Research November 5, 2010 ,,
	44	+If nuclear power is used as a principal element of future electricity generation worldwide,
	45	+AND
	46	+reactors were increased by a factor of ten compared to the present.31
	47	+
	48	+
	49	+====Prefer our Statistical Analysis- ====
	50	+
	51	+
	52	+====1) includes every accident on record that had to do with regulation or preparedness====
	53	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	54	+We therefore collected our data from two publicly available lists of nuclear accidents, one
	55	+AND
	56	+This leaves four accidents with core melts in civil reactors for power generation.
	57	+
	58	+
	59	+====2) Organizations like the IAEA engage in data suppression which is a reason to reject their safety calculations and assumptions====
	60	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	61	+In the literature there are slightly different defini- tions of a minor, major
	62	+AND
	63	+, "There is no publicly available list of events rated using INES."
	64	+
	65	+
	66	+====3) Assumes realities like tech differences and possible learning curves, and thus the spread of data is huge====
	67	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	68	+Using simple statistics, the probability of a core-melt accident within 1 year
	69	+AND
	70	+1 in 14,300 reactor years and 1 in 1450 reactor years.
	71	+
	72	+
	73	+====4) Past studies use the Probabilistic Risk Assessment method, which is incorrect and biased. General academia agrees with our method which is standard Risk Assessment. ====
	74	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	75	+In the past, several studies have investigated the prob- ability of a core
	76	+AND
	77	+there was agreement on the substantive con- clusions of Islam and Lindgren.
	78	+
	79	+
	80	+====Learning curve is empirically denied- no reduction in accidents over time despite improvements in technology. Any flaws is because of the IAEA data suppression====
	81	+Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
	82	+We also wanted to see whether accidents become less frequent with more operational experience.
	83	+AND
	84	+is no indication that some reactors are less prone to failure than others.
	85	+
	86	+
	87	+===B: Construction Issues===
	88	+
	89	+
	90	+====Meltdowns inevitable with nuclear reactors —- new technology can’t take out the root causes of malfunctions====
	91	+Shailendra **Yashwant**, 20**11**, ,,writer for several journals and newspaper, photojournalist for conservation, 3/18/2011, "Meltdowns inevitable, the sordid side of nuclear power," http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/18/meltdowns-inevitable-sordid-side-nuclear-power.html,,
	92	+Once again, we are reminded of the inherent risks of nuclear power, which
	93	+AND
	94	+cause (most serious one happening recently at Forsmark in Sweden, 2006).
	95	+
	96	+
	97	+====American companies don’t even follow the standards —- and regulations are far from sufficient. ====
	98	+Edwin **Lyman**, 20**08**, ,,Senior Scientist in the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, president of the Nuclear Control Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based organization focused on nuclear proliferation, postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University’s Center for Energy and Environmental Studies 1992-95 (now the Science and Global Security Program), doctorate degree in physics from Cornell University in 1992, "Can nuclear plants be safer?" http://www.psr.org/nuclear-bailout/resources/can-nuclear-plants-be-safer.pdf - Bulletin of Atomic Scientists September/October 2008 – Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 34-37),,
	99	+But the NRC and the nuclear industry are squandering the opportunity to lock in major
	100	+AND
	101	+. pressurized water reactors, excluding the much weaker ice-condenser plants.
	102	+
	103	+
	104	+====Companies make Nuclear zero sum with Renewables- means more emissions. ====
	105	+Lawrence Et Al 16 ,,Andrew Lawrence, International Relations, Vienna School of International Studies Benjamin Sovacool, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Andrew Stirling, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex "Nuclear energy and path dependence in Europe’s ‘Energy union’: coherence or continued divergence?" Published online: 01 Jul 2016 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2016.1179616,,
	106	+Several implications are evident from Table 2. Europe’s three patterns of active nuclear commitment
	107	+AND
	108	+99(394), 116–131.) – is therefore in order.
	109	+
	110	+
	111	+====Don’t trust studies by international or country agencies- political incentives and confirmation bias. ====
	112	+Lawrence Et Al 16 ,,Andrew Lawrence, International Relations, Vienna School of International Studies Benjamin Sovacool, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Andrew Stirling, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex "Nuclear energy and path dependence in Europe’s ‘Energy union’: coherence or continued divergence?" Published online: 01 Jul 2016 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2016.1179616,,
	113	+The second question concerns the wider strategic position of nuclear energy in relation to stated
	114	+AND
	115	+10.1016/j.erss.2014.02.009).
	116	+
	117	+
	118	+==Contention 2: Meltdowns are Bad==
	119	+
	120	+
	121	+====Reactors and wastes are sited near minority groups, which means they get killed first and experience increased cancer rates. ====
	122	+Alldred And Shrader-Frechette 9 ,,Mary Alldred and Kristin Shrader-Frechette Doctoral student Alldred is in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, in Stony Brook, New York. Dr. Shrader-Frechette is O’Neill Fam- ily Endowed Professor, Department of Biological Sciences and Department of Philosophy, and Director of the Center for Envi- ronmental Justice and Children’s Health, all at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana. "Environmental Injustice in Siting Nuclear Plants" ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Volume 2, Number 2, 2009 © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI: 10.1089/env.2008.0544,,
	123	+Even when reactors operate normally, statistically sig- nificant increases in infant and fetal
	124	+AND
	125	+(p 0.001), at least in the southeastern United States.
	126	+
	127	+
	128	+====Meltdowns like Fukushima kill tons of plankton life which also accelerate warming====
	129	+Green Road Journal 16, ,,March 24th, 2016. Nuclear Energy as a Direct Cause of Global Warming, Acid Rain, Acid Oceans, Extreme Weather, And Super Storms.http://www.agreenroadjournal.com/2013/12/nuclear-energy-as-direct-cause-of.html,,
	130	+Second, now let's focus more on the direct radiation effects on the world,
	131	+AND
	132	+the Pacific ocean and any area where the radioactive plume from Fukushima went.
	133	+
	134	+
	135	+====Contamination spreads rapidly and everywhere. ====
	136	+**Max - Planck- Gesselschaft 12** –The Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science is a formally independent non-governmental and non-profit association of German research institute (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Major Reactor, 5-22-2012, "Severe nuclear reactor accidents likely every 10 to 20 years, European study suggests," ScienceDaily, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120522134942.htm) LADI
	137	+25 percent of the radioactive particles are transported further than 2,000 kilometres Subsequently
	138	+AND
	139	+out of nuclear energy should also be considered ," adds the atmospheric chemist.
	140	+
	141	+
	142	+==Underview==
	143	+
	144	+
	145	+====Predictions fail – nuclear power experts are part of a system of experts whose predictions are doomed to fail because of complexity====
	146	+Tetlock and Gardner 11 ,,Philip Tetlock is a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, AND Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear, received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award, M.A. History from York, "OVERCOMING OUR AVERSION TO ACKNOWLEDGING OUR IGNORANCE" July 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance/,,
	147	+Each December, The Economist forecasts the coming year in a special issue called The
	148	+AND
	149	+mindless competition: simple extrapolation algorithms that automatically predicted more of the same.
	150	+
	151	+
	152	+====The state is key – engaging multiple sites of resistance and interim reforms is necessary to foster an ethos critical to overcome right-wing oppression====
	153	+Connolly ’13 ~~William, Professor of Political Theory at Johns Hopkins University, The Fragility of Things, pp. 36-42~~
	154	+A philosophy attending to the acceleration, expansion, irrationalities, interdependencies, and fragilities
	155	+AND
	156	+too urgent and too many people on the ground are suffering too much now

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-09-15 18:50:22.223

Judge

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	1	+Harwood, Shields

Opponent

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	1	+Montgomery

ParentRound

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	1	+0

Round

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	1	+2

Team

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	1	+Kinkaid Yang Aff

Title

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	1	+SEPT OCT Meltdowns

Tournament

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	1	+Greenhill RR