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Cites

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1		-=1AC Standard=
2		-
3		-
4		-==FW==
5		-
6		-
7		-====The question of debate is what governments ought to do- ====
8		-
9		-
10		-====Provides best advocacy skills and understanding on the shortfalls of the state. ====
11		-Joyner 99, ,,Professor International Law @ Georgetwon, 99 (Christopher "TEACHING INTERNATIONAL LAW: VIEWS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS POLITICAL SCIENTIST" ILSA Journal of International and Comparative Law, Spring, 5 ILSA J Int'l and Comp L 377),,
12		-Use of the debate can be an effective pedagogical tool for education in the social
13		-AND
14		-the real world of policy analysis, political critique, and legal defense.
15		-
16		-
17		-====Public policy has to be within data sets====
18		-Gill Callaghan 2008 ~~Research Fellow at Durham University School Applied Social Sciences, "Evaluation and Negotiated Order : Developing the Application of Complexity Theory" Evaluation Vol 14(4): 399–411~~
19		- This article argues that complexity theory has the potential to bring important insights in
20		-AND
21		-to handle agency. Negotiated order can provide such a complexity consistent account.
22		-
23		-
24		-====Impacts: ====
25		-
26		-
27		-====A) Negative agrees to advocate for a competitive policy with data sets to prove it works- otherwise nonfalsifiable and can’t access social science education. Has to be competitive- data sets wouldn’t compare things that aren’t mutually exclusive otherwise no identifiable opportunity cost for data even if there’s a net benefit. ====
28		-
29		-
30		-====B) Only evaluate explicit empirical data to assess probability for arguments- only non-biased and objective way. ====
31		-
32		-
33		-====Esp important because probability neglect is a big problem in policymaking, people assess too much value to the impact. ====
34		-Sunstein 2 (Cass, Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, Law School and Department of Political Science, Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law, http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/112-1/SunsteinFINAL.pdf)
35		-If someone is predisposed to be worried, degrees of unlikeliness seem to provide no
36		-AND
37		-the small difference would not matter when each risk is taken in isolation.
38		-
39		-
40		-====This entails maximization of ends====
41		-
42		-
43		-====People psychologically agree– governments are obligated to use it since it’s more justifiable for citizens====
44		-**Gino et al 2008 ~~Francesca Gino Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Don Moore Tepper Business School, Carnegie Mellon University, Max H. Bozman Harvard Business School, Harvard University "No harm, no foul: The outcome bias in ethical judgments" http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-080.pdf~~ **
45		-The present studies provide strong evidence of the existence of outcome effects in ethically-
46		-AND
47		-standard of data sets- psych studies studies mean ends justify the means.
48		-
49		-
50		-====The standard is maximizing expected well being through empirical social science====
51		-
52		-
53		-====Plan: Countries ought to prohibit the production of nuclear power====
54		-
55		-
56		-====The free dictionary (legal dictionary) defines Nuclear Power As====
57		-A form of energy produced by an atomic reaction, capable of producing an alternative source of electrical power to that supplied by coal, gas, or oil.
58		-That means nuclear power is civilian nuclear power- things like space propulsion can’t be done by fossil fuels
59		-
60		-
61		-====It’s also fission====
62		-Merriam Webster ,,http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nuclear20power,,
63		-energy that is created by splitting apart the nuclei of atoms
64		-
65		-
66		-==Contention 1: Meltdowns will Happen==
67		-
68		-
69		-===A: Statistics===
70		-
71		-
72		-====The probability of a core meltdown is 69.8 in the next 10 years. In the US for next 25 years, it’s 50.4====
73		-Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910,,
74		-Thus the best estimate is 1 in 3704 reactor years. Having established this,
75		-AND
76		-accident within the next 25 years with a probability of 50.4.
77		-
78		-
79		-====Not enough nuclear reactors to solve warming, and if they did they would melt down. ====
80		-,,Arjun,, Makhijani 10, ,,Ph.D. "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy" Institute for Energy and Environmental Research November 5, 2010 ,,
81		-If nuclear power is used as a principal element of future electricity generation worldwide,
82		-AND
83		-reactors were increased by a factor of ten compared to the present.31
84		-
85		-
86		-====Prefer our Statistical Analysis- ====
87		-
88		-
89		-====1) includes every accident on record that had to do with regulation or preparedness====
90		-Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
91		-We therefore collected our data from two publicly available lists of nuclear accidents, one
92		-AND
93		-This leaves four accidents with core melts in civil reactors for power generation.
94		-
95		-
96		-====2) Organizations like the IAEA engage in data suppression which is a reason to reject their safety calculations and assumptions====
97		-Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
98		-In the literature there are slightly different defini- tions of a minor, major
99		-AND
100		-, "There is no publicly available list of events rated using INES."
101		-
102		-
103		-====3) Past studies use the Probabilistic Risk Assessment method, which is incorrect and biased. General academia agrees with our method which is standard Risk Assessment. ====
104		-Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
105		-In the past, several studies have investigated the prob- ability of a core
106		-AND
107		-there was agreement on the substantive con- clusions of Islam and Lindgren.
108		-
109		-
110		-====4) Transparency- Rose and Sweeting are transparent about drawbacks. This is consistent with effective data analysis. ====
111		-
112		-
113		-====Learning curve is empirically denied- no reduction in accidents over time despite improvements in technology. Any flaws is because of data suppression====
114		-Rose and Sweeting 16 ,,Thomas Rose and Trevor Sweeting (2016) How safe is nuclear power? A statistical study suggests less than expected, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72:2, 112-115, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2016.1145910 Thomas Rose is a professor of sensor technology at the Münster University of Applied Sciences, in Germany, and an honorary senior research associate in the University College London’s Department of Science and Technology Studies of University College London; he holds a doctorate in nuclear physics and worked for several years in industry. He is interested in sensor systems and the relation between science and society. Trevor Sweeting is an emeritus professor of statistics at University College London, UK. He holds a doctorate in statis- tics and has published widely on both theoretical statistics and applications in medicine, engineering, computer science and elsewhere. His current interests include Bayesian statistics and the theory of inference, statistical methodology for the fitting of prognostic models in medical research, and evaluation of infor- mation retrieval systems in computer science.,,
115		-We also wanted to see whether accidents become less frequent with more operational experience.
116		-AND
117		-is no indication that some reactors are less prone to failure than others.
118		-
119		-
120		-====Meltdowns and their probability overwhelm incentives for future development====
121		-,,STEVEN F.,, HAYWARD 11,,"Weekly Standard: Against A Fossil Fuel Renaissance" March 24, 20119:03 AM ET http://www.npr.org/2011/03/24/134818457/weekly-standard-a-fossil-fuel-renaissance,,
122		-An additional irony of Japan's disaster is that had we not abandoned nuclear power 30
123		-AND
124		-reactors, like the Fukushima Daiichi, long after their intended life span.
125		-
126		-
127		-===B: Global Warming===
128		-
129		-
130		-====Passed warming tippint point of 400 ppm- consensus of scientists on the threshold and the crossing====
131		-Rmuse 10/6 ,,"Earth’s Climate Exceeded Its Tipping Point and Nobody Cares",,
132		-,,http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/06/earths-climate-reached-exceeded-tipping-point-cares.html,,
133		-Scientists have carefully monitored atmospheric carbon dioxide for decades and the overriding consensus has always
134		-AND
135		-below 400 ppm this year – or ever again for the indefinite future."
136		-
137		-
138		-====Warming limits Nuke Power Effectiveness- coolant isn’t cool====
139		-,,Alyson,, Kenward 11 ,,"In Tennessee, Heat Waves Diminish Nuclear Power Output" Published: April 10th, 2011 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/in-tennessee-heat-waves-frustrate-nuclear-power,,
140		-Eight weeks of unrelenting heat later, the plant was still running at half its
141		-AND
142		-term solution for a long-term problem the nuclear industry is facing.
143		-
144		-
145		-====Warming causes disasters which cause meltdowns, new tech fails, and renewable shift happening now. ====
146		-**Michael Brune et. al 15, Executive Director of the Sierra Club; Annie Leonard, Executive Director of Greenpeace; Erich Pica, President of the Friends of the Earth; "Nuclear power is a losing proposition," August 9, 2015, http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article30434562.html**
147		-More than seven out of ten of us want more emphasis on wind and solar
148		-AND
149		-the climate, but it cannot and will not be stymied for long.
150		-
151		-
152		-==Contention 2: Meltdowns are Bad==
153		-
154		-
155		-====Reactors and wastes are sited near minority groups, which means they get killed first and experience increased cancer rates. ====
156		-Alldred And Shrader-Frechette 9 ,,Mary Alldred and Kristin Shrader-Frechette Doctoral student Alldred is in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, in Stony Brook, New York. Dr. Shrader-Frechette is O’Neill Fam- ily Endowed Professor, Department of Biological Sciences and Department of Philosophy, and Director of the Center for Envi- ronmental Justice and Children’s Health, all at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana. "Environmental Injustice in Siting Nuclear Plants" ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Volume 2, Number 2, 2009 © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI: 10.1089/env.2008.0544,,
157		-Even when reactors operate normally, statistically sig- nificant increases in infant and fetal
158		-AND
159		-(p 0.001), at least in the southeastern United States.
160		-
161		-
162		-====Radiation does kill, study of over 400 thousand over 50 years show that linear no-threshold theory is correct and hormesis is wrong. ====
163		-**MUSHAK 2007** (Paul, PB Associates, Durham, North Carolina, Environmental Health Perspectives, April 1, Lexis)
164		-Radiologic hormesis. Some proponents of radiologic hormesis hold that the linear no-threshold
165		-AND
166		-articles support the ICRP standard of 20 mSv/year for occupational protection.
167		-
168		-
169		-====Contamination spreads rapidly – no one is safe. 28 million. ====
170		-**Max - Planck- Gesselschaft 12** –The Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science is a formally independent non-governmental and non-profit association of German research institute (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Major Reactor, 5-22-2012, "Severe nuclear reactor accidents likely every 10 to 20 years, European study suggests," ScienceDaily, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120522134942.htm) LADI
171		-25 percent of the radioactive particles are transported further than 2,000 kilometres Subsequently
172		-AND
173		-out of nuclear energy should also be considered ," adds the atmospheric chemist.
174		-
175		-
176		-====Nuclear energy contaminates surrounding water tables independent of meltdowns which kills even more. ====
177		-Caldicott, ‘6 ,,~~Helen, Founder, President — Nuclear Policy Research Institute, "Nuclear Power is not the answer," p. 58-9~~,,
178		-Radioactive corrosion or activation products that are not the result of uranium fission are also
179		-AND
180		-some just leaks out unplanned. Many other emissions are simply not monitored.

EntryDate

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1		-2016-10-15 13:42:40.0

Judge

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1		-Castillo

Opponent

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1		-Harvard Westlake

ParentRound

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1		-3

Round

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1		-2

Team

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1		-Kinkaid Yang Aff

Title

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1		-SEPT OCT Meltdowns 3

Tournament

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1		-St Marks