Summary

• Objects (1 modified, 1 added, 0 removed)
  • Caselist.RoundClass[16]
  • Caselist.CitesClass[14]

Details

Caselist.RoundClass[16]

EntryDate

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1		-2016-09-21 03:07:01.249
	1	+2016-09-21 03:07:01.0

Caselist.CitesClass[14]

Cites

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	1	+Japan’s economy is on the brink now – slow growth means one push collapses the economy. AFP 9/8.
	2	+AFP (Agence France-Presse is an international news agency headquartered in Paris, France. Founded in 1944, AFP is the third largest news agency in the world, after the Associated Press and Reuters.), Japan economy barely grows in April-June: revised data, 9/8/16, http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/1081092/japan-economy-barely-grows-in-april-june-revised-data
	3	+Japan's economy barely grew in the April-June quarter, revised data showed Thursday, supplying the latest failing report card for the prime minister's policy blitz. Growth in the world's third-largest economy came in at 0.2 percent on-quarter, slightly better than a 0.0 percent preliminary estimate last month, as weak exports dented activity. On an annualised basis, the economy expanded a revised 0.7 percent, compared with a slight 0.2 percent expansion in the preliminary data. That is still off a 2.1 percent annualised growth rate seen in the first quarter of the year. Japanese officials are under pressure to deliver as economists increasingly write off Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's years-long bid to cement a lasting recovery, dubbed Abenomics. The Tokyo stock market opened lower shortly after the announcement of the revised data, with the benchmark Nikkei index falling 0.18 percent in the first minutes of trade. The dollar, meanwhile, was trading at 101.80 yen in early Tokyo trade compared with 101.73 yen in New York late Wednesday. The weak growth figures will heap pressure on the Bank of Japan for more action when it meets later this month. Tokyo recently announced a whopping 28 trillion yen ($275 billion) package aimed at kick-starting growth, after Britain's June vote to quit the European Union sent financial markets into a tailspin and sparked a rally in the yen. "Japan's economy is only managing this weak, fragile growth," Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities, said in a commentary. "Exports are unlikely to be the engine of recovery. With corporate profits set to decline this year, it's tough to see wage growth spurring consumer spending or firms stepping up their own investments. "Another rise in the yen could tip the economy into a recession." The resurgent yen is threatening corporate Japan's bottom line ~-~- aggravating broader concerns about growth. Investors tend to buy Japan's currency as a safe bet in times of turmoil or uncertainty. But it makes exporters less competitive overseas and hits their profits. The problem was highlighted recently as many of the country’s best-known firms, including Sony and Toyota, reported lower profits in the three months to June. Abe's plan ~-~- a mix of massive monetary easing, government spending and red-tape slashing ~-~- initially brought the yen down from record highs and set off a stock market rally. But promises to cut through red tape have been slower, and Abe's plan to buoy Japan's once-booming economy have looked increasingly unrealistic. His spend-for-growth policies have set Japan apart from some of its rich nation counterparts, including Germany, which has been reluctant to endorse them, seeing it as an ineffective way to stimulate the economy.
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	7	+Nuclear energy is key to Japan’s economy – banning it would push them to recession. Bastasch 14.
	8	+Michael Bastasch, One Year Without Nuclear Power Has Japan Scrambling For Relief, 9/15/14, http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/15/one-year-without-nuclear-power-has-japan-scrambling-for-relief/
	9	+Greenpeace is celebrating the one-year anniversary of Japan idling its last nuclear power plant, calling it an “inspiring lesson for people across the globe.” But what Greenpeace fails to mention is that Japan’s energy economy has been in chaos since the last of about 50 nuclear reactors went idle last year in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Since Fukushima, the Japanese economy has been hampered by rising energy costs and struggling electric utilities that have been propped up by government subsidies in order to keep the lights on amid rising power costs. In 2010, before the Fukushima nuclear incident, the total cost of power generation in Japan was 7.5 trillion yen. But after the Fukushima meltdown, power generation costs rose sharply to 9.6 trillion yen in 2011 and 10.6 trillion yen in 2012, according to a 2013 report by the Institute for Energy Economics, Japan. Why the huge price increase? After Fukushima, Japan began idling its nuclear power plants pending safety investigations, meaning the country began using more natural gas and oil — which are imported — to make up the slack. IEEJ estimates that relying more on imported gas and oil cost Japan 1.2 trillion yen between 2010 and 2012. Power prices could have risen higher, reports IEEJ, had power demand not fallen throughout the country, companies could have spent 3.6 trillion on power generation during that time. Greenpeace sees this as a good thing. They see the nuclear industry as one that has “sucked billions from taxpayers” and “has defied logical justification, whether it be judged on economic, environmental, security or human health grounds.”
	10	+Japanese economic collapse drags down the global economy and sparks Asian conflict. Auslin 09
	11	+Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Japan's Downturn Is Bad News for the World”, Wall Street Journal, 2-17, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123483257056995903.html
	12	+If Japan's economy collapses, supply chains across the globe will be affected and numerous economies will face severe disruptions, most notably China's. China is currently Japan's largest import provider, and the Japanese slowdown is creating tremendous pressure on Chinese factories. Just last week, the Chinese government announced that 20 million rural migrants had lost their jobs. Closer to home, Japan may also start running out of surplus cash, which it has used to purchase U.S. securities for years. For the first time in a generation, Tokyo is running trade deficits ~-~- five months in a row so far. The political and social fallout from a Japanese depression also would be devastating. In the face of economic instability, other Asian nations may feel forced to turn to more centralized ~-~- even authoritarian ~-~- control to try to limit the damage. Free-trade agreements may be rolled back and political freedom curtailed. Social stability in emerging, middle-class societies will be severely tested, and newly democratized states may find it impossible to maintain power. Progress toward a more open, integrated Asia is at risk, with the potential for increased political tension in the world's most heavily armed region. This is the backdrop upon which the U.S. government is set to expand the national debt by a trillion dollars or more. Without massive debt purchases by Japan and China, the U.S. may not be able to finance the cost of the stimulus package, creating a trapdoor under the U.S. economy. So far, Japan's politicians have been unable to find a way out of this mess. While another $53 billion stimulus package works its way through parliament, fully one-third of Japan's prefectures have instituted emergency economic stabilization measures. But the big issues elude short-term solutions. Though Japan's leaders are currently cutting back on military expenditures and domestic services, they're unable to agree on budgets or reform plans. They have no strategic road map for reining in the yen, opening up to international competition, or taking an economic leadership role in Asia that will promote growth and strengthen democratic, market-oriented societies. Things don't have to turn out this way. If Japan's leaders can craft a monetary policy that ends Japan's deflationary spiral by carefully expanding the money supply, recommit to structural reform, and halt the yen's rise, they can jump-start economic growth. They should also ignore the powerful domestic agriculture lobby and embrace a robust free-trade agenda, which would help them as well as the rest of Asia. Mrs. Clinton's visit cannot be a simple photo opportunity. This trip needs to result in a clear U.S.-Japan approach to restoring confidence and rebuilding a robust and open international system. Without action, Japan and America may go over the cliff together, dragging Asia and the world down with them.
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	14	+Econ collapse leads to escalating instability and nuke war. Harris and Burrows 09
	15	+Harris and Burrows, 9 – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf)
	16	+Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

EntryDate

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	1	+2016-09-21 03:07:03.91

Judge

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	1	+Panel

Opponent

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	1	+Lexington NB

ParentRound

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	1	+16

Round

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	1	+Doubles

Team

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	1	+Harvard Westlake Engel Neg

Title

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	1	+SEPT-OCT - DA - JAPAN ECON

Tournament

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	1	+Greenhill